1. Bearish RSI Divergence spotted on daily time frame as well as hourly time frame. 2. Strong Resistance at 15,500 level, might reverse. 3. Falling ADX signifies a weak move up, suggesting reversal. 4. Correction might last till 15,000 or 14,700 levels.
Comment
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**Further upside move is only and only possible if 15,500 level is broken with STRONG Momentum which is highly unlikely.
There will be 10% correction in middle of june(10-20june)have patios
Anmolshukla
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@ckirtane I believe the correction will last for 5-6% tops, because of strong support at 14700 level
gkinoct2020
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Before any fall, it will surely make a trend reversal candlestick pattern then only we can expect fall.
Beginning of Divergence is never a good shorting opportunity, because there is certainly some upside left, that will trigger stoploss.
In my opinion,if it has to correct, high probability of head and shoulder pattern in near time.
Only If it shows reversal pattern, Fall upto 14600 should be speedy, after 14600, it may lose downside momentum, but will be choppy in uptrend.
Then again after reaching 14700 will take resistance of 14700 and may fall upto 14400, but 14400 should act as strong support.
Anmolshukla
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@gkinoct2020, I agree for most of what you said, except that I think that there is a very little chance it may fall below 14,700. There's a very high support at the level which I think wouldn't be easy to break.
And as for the reversal signal apart from the technical factors, I feel the last 4-6 candles formed aren't showing much of bullish strength.
Maverick_777
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Anmol, first of all, for checking RSI bearish divergence, we always use swing highs. Right. Who said the current swing high formation is over. It is not on charts or anywhere yet. So, technically you cannot join the two points on RSI till now until the market shows reversal. You may be correct that the market may fall ahead but giving the reason of RSI behind as of now is not.
Anmolshukla
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@Maverick_777, Hey! I totally agree with your point. But, the rise from 14,200 level to the 15,300 level saw a gradual fall in the ADX, that signifies that the momentum and strength of the upside move is not strong. Also as per the option chain there is a very high resistance on the 15,500 level. So I believe it would be safe to assume that if a reversal were to happen in the near future, it would be from the 15,500 level.
Keeping this assumption in mind I have selected the current market level as a close point to the potential swing high.
I believe it's better to be prepared for a fall before it happens rather than after it starts happening. :)
Great observation though, cheers!
Maverick_777
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@Anmolshukla, even I am expecting too..cuz the rally has been enough and nifty candles are no longer bullish they are just green..