Today, Rupee jumped by 55 paise to close at 71.2350, remarkable recovery. Oil prices recovered and at this moment Brent crude is trading at around $64 per barrel (International markets) on the news that Saudi oil output can be restored back in next 2-3 weeks, which in turn means that prices can come down even earlier in the old range of $60-61 per barrel. These pieces of good developments helped Nifty defend its yesterday's low. With Fed announcement due tonight, how Indian markets will react tomorrow? According to experts, 25 basis points cut is already factored in. SGX Nifty and Hang Seng will give indication for tomorrow's openning. Based on above developments, I do not think Nifty will go down below today's low. Let's check other data.
1) Provisional figures show that FIIs were net sellers by 959 Crs and DIIs were Net buyers by 780 Crs. In absolute terms FIIs sold shares woth 3773 Crs and DIIs bought shares worth 2814 Crs (a difference of 959 Crs). On tuesday too, as per final figures, FIIs sold in Equity but bought in index and stock futures. So the FII pull out continues, though the volume has reduced.
2) Option chain data: On PUT side highest total OI (21.17 lakhs) is at 10800 strike but highest fresh Put writing (4.83 lakhs) is at 10700. At 10800, fresh Put writing of 2.60 lakhs (3rd highest near CMP) is seen. At 10700, total OI of 16.93 lakhs ( 2nd highest) is seen. In a nutshell, 10800 looks defendable support and 10700 is surely so. On CALL side, highest total OI (30.55 lakhs) is at 11000 strike and highest fresh Call writing (4.64 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. At 10900 strike, total OI is 23.95 lakhs (3rd highest). 2nd highest total OI is at 11100 which is now quite far for tomorrow's expiry. So, for me 10900 looks good resistance. But if Market jumps due to triple factor of oil price drop, rupee recovery and good fed rate cut, then 10950 might act as resistance though I do not find Call writing and total OI great on this strike. But I do not see it rising till 11000 on overall weak economic scenario and continuous FII selling. For starters, I would put bracket at 10800-10900/10950.
3) Charts- On daily chart, Nifty ended as a red candle with lower high and marginally higher low than yesterday's candle. 13th September's low of 10945 will act as reistance and during yesterday's fall, a selling area has also been created (on 60 min and 15 min charts) as shown on 15 min chart. This also concurs with our OC finding that 10950 can act as resistance in the event 10900 is demolished. Trading levels for tomorrow are shown on attached chart.
All the best. Happy trading.
1) Provisional figures show that FIIs were net sellers by 959 Crs and DIIs were Net buyers by 780 Crs. In absolute terms FIIs sold shares woth 3773 Crs and DIIs bought shares worth 2814 Crs (a difference of 959 Crs). On tuesday too, as per final figures, FIIs sold in Equity but bought in index and stock futures. So the FII pull out continues, though the volume has reduced.
2) Option chain data: On PUT side highest total OI (21.17 lakhs) is at 10800 strike but highest fresh Put writing (4.83 lakhs) is at 10700. At 10800, fresh Put writing of 2.60 lakhs (3rd highest near CMP) is seen. At 10700, total OI of 16.93 lakhs ( 2nd highest) is seen. In a nutshell, 10800 looks defendable support and 10700 is surely so. On CALL side, highest total OI (30.55 lakhs) is at 11000 strike and highest fresh Call writing (4.64 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. At 10900 strike, total OI is 23.95 lakhs (3rd highest). 2nd highest total OI is at 11100 which is now quite far for tomorrow's expiry. So, for me 10900 looks good resistance. But if Market jumps due to triple factor of oil price drop, rupee recovery and good fed rate cut, then 10950 might act as resistance though I do not find Call writing and total OI great on this strike. But I do not see it rising till 11000 on overall weak economic scenario and continuous FII selling. For starters, I would put bracket at 10800-10900/10950.
3) Charts- On daily chart, Nifty ended as a red candle with lower high and marginally higher low than yesterday's candle. 13th September's low of 10945 will act as reistance and during yesterday's fall, a selling area has also been created (on 60 min and 15 min charts) as shown on 15 min chart. This also concurs with our OC finding that 10950 can act as resistance in the event 10900 is demolished. Trading levels for tomorrow are shown on attached chart.
All the best. Happy trading.