Nifty: Plan your investment / trade after you read this...

Observations
- we are looking at Post 2008 Global meltdown era
- the chart here is Nifty weekly chart
- we have used 252 week EMA for our thesis

- A Cycle here is defined as the rise of Nifty from 252 week EMA - making a top and then retesting the 252 week EMA
- correction only to the point of 252 EMA is taken in to consideration
- to cut off the noise, only time cycle where the candlestick is more than 104 weeks (2years) is considered


Cycle 1
- we see 80 weeks of Rising phase giving returns to the tune of 84% before peaking out
- the correction phase lasted 55 weeks and gave negative returns of 28.5%

Cycle 2
- In 79 weeks in the Rising phase, Nifty gave 79% approximately &
- in Correction phase it corrected 24.5% in 47 weeks

Cycle 3
- this was an exceptional phase as the Rising phase lasted 205 weeks before peaking out and gave returns of 81.5% approximately &
- the correction phase was the shorted and correction up to 252 week EMA was done in just 7 weeks which was 19% below the 12430 peak (again note we are not talking about full correction which was 39% but only correction up to 252 EMA here)

Cycle 4
- In the current cycle, if 18604 level is our peak so far, it was reached in 72 weeks giving returns of 89%
- the correction phase has already done 51 weeks so far & counting

Interesting co-relations
- Except for Cycle 3, The rising phase has been between 70-80 weeks
- All the 4 Rising phase have given returns to the tune of 80-90% approximately

- All the correction phase has been shorter than Rising phase
- currently 252 week EMA is approximately 26% away from the recent peak corelating well with historical corrections

Wow... that was too much of data analysis.😀

Whether Nifty retests 252 week EMA or not; only time will tell. All we can do is plan for it, be prepared and if opportunity does comes then be in control of the situation and make the most of it...😊

I hope the analysis would help you in planning your trade and investments...

AIM FOR THE BEST... PLAN FOR THE WORST !

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Take care & safe investing / trading...!!!

Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be