IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16385.7 / 16543.6 / 16376.3 / 16529.1 [+164.7 / +1.01% H-L = 167 VIX 12.99 / +5.01% FII DII: +968 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty made an impressive start in the first 5 minutes and then never looked back and gradually climbed the ladder leading to and beyond 16500.
With 2 back to back weekly positive candles, Nifty is heading higher and the baselines would now need to be redrawn and for good as we enter a zone that is not very familiar.
The next week which is the truncated week is important for Nifty as it would indicate which way Nifty is likely to move.
BAJAJ FINANCE 6 EICHER MOTORS 4 BRITANNIA 2 HDFC LIFE 2 BRITANNIA 2 TOTAL 16
Lifter - Draggers = 94
This explains that there was a massive difference that helped Nifty end above 16500.
POSITIVES Nifty made yet another ATH and a weekly ATH close as well.
RELIANCE, IT heavyweights, and HDFC twins played key roles in changing the complexion of the range-bound trading that had been taking place.
HDFC has closed above 2700 and it is a big plus especially on a weekly close.
FIIs have turned net buyers.
NEGATIVES
17 out of 50 scrips ended the day in Red. This is not a great sign when Nifty has cleared what appeared to be a hard level to crack.
Half of the Bank Nifty family ended in the Red. It was HDFC BANK and SBI that dominated the pack so all is still not well with the family.
At a sector level as well, a few of the sectors are still in the red which is not a great sign.
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 16-8-21
The nifty baseline will for now be 16300-350, the area from where it rallied on 13-8-21.
BANK NIFTY support base at 35600-800 and resistance at 36200-36500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Friday the 13th turned out to be a great day for all market participants.
Nifty was allowed to rise in a seamless manner as both FIIs and DIIs thought it was about time that they prove the other players wrong.
Bank Nifty is almost 2,000 points away from ATH and Nifty already past 16500 indicates that Nifty may well be able to reach 17000 if Bank Nifty makes an ATH close in the coming weeks.
There are several mainline stocks that are quite a distance from their ATH or yearly highs and if all these decisions to move up, what would happen?
I can only think that in such a case, RELIANCE may decide to not join the party and keep Nifty in check and let Bank Nifty reach ATH.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making, & Happy Independence Day!
Jai Hind!
Umesh 14-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.