#Nifty

#Nifty weekly RSI has crossed over above 60 indicating bulls in full control. As per history, positive RSI(14) crossover above 60 on a weekly scale, has yielded good upside moves. There are few failover cases too but going by statistics winning chances are higher. FII's are buying continuously and they are net buyers on almost 85% trading days in the last 40 days which has pushed the market higher. This series also they have started with a bullish note. Trending up move to continue at least till the first half of September or till end provided 11375 is being protected on a day closing basis.

Few analysts telling, Nifty trading at highest PE of 32 and this bull run may not sustain. Quite valid and history may tend to repeat itself. But if you keep replacing laggards with stronger performing companies then #Nifty PE is likely to improve and stay higher. So, the logic of PE to go short may not be wise. Many stocks are trading with higher PE and evaluations, which doesn't mean one will go short with all good stocks and buy Suzlon, RCOM, and ADAG stocks which are having lower PE.

Few even argue, the macroeconomic indicators still showing sluggishness. Even RBI governor Shaktikanta Das confirmed the same in the last press meet. Corona cases still rising. There is a huge gap in economic conditions and the markets. Hence, such a V-shaped recovery in the markets may not sustain. We have been hearing the last 2 months and the market moved from 10000-11600. The market is irrational and doesn't oblige to individual logic and views. Also, market discounts a lot of things which may take place in the future.

Summarily, everyone sees resistance, week macro-economic data, rising corona cases, etc, and expect markets to correct. Will the market oblige to this consensus? Questionable. The market will correct; when it will think so, probably when the last bear will turn bullish. It has its own style of moving and will continue to do so against the common consensus. It will be wiser to stay in the direction of the trend with #TrailSL or protection.

We are sustaining above the 11615 levels. The next logical target as per the setup could be 11839/11974/12062. Will create bullish spreads closing existing bearish ones, for September expiry with 11377 as SL. Don’t pre-empt any shorts, wait for your logics to reflect on charts. Did the same mistake of the same and paid the price by giving back 30% of profits in the last week of August series.

Comment:

Disclaimer: Objective of posts is to educate and help members learn technical analysis, from my personal trade picks. All these stock ideas or trade updates are for educational purpose only and completely non-advisory in nature. I am not a SEBI registered analyst and strongly recommend people not to trade in NSE / BSE / MCX market basis the posted trade ideas. These stock ideas or views are momentum picks chosen using technical analysis and indicators and for my own trading purpose only. Technical indicators are lagging and may generate false buy/sell signals. Market is supreme and my views may go horribly wrong. Please don't consider these trade ideas as trading recommendations. You may consider it for learning or at max use it for paper trading. Strictly avoid it for trading using real money. I am not responsible for any kind of profit and losses or SEBI audits arising out of the above calls. Stock market trading and investment is subject to market risks. Contact your financial advisor before taking trades (or trade at your own risk).