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NIfty - Short

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
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4
Shorted Nifty @ 11735 (Sep futures )

Currently it seems that Wave-III is retracing. Expected range for Wave-IV is between 38.2% & 50% retracement .
There could be volatility and consolidation.
Just closed the short trade at 11455 as I was writing this. About 280 points per lot profit.

Shall enter again on the short side when the levels seem right.
Trade closed: target reached: 11455 was one of fib based probability levels that I have customised over many months. These calculation have proved to be highly accurate. So I set my first target at this level. Shall wait for a correction and then short again.
Comment: Bank Nifty Sep Futures just hit my one of my probability levels of support 27326 and my buy order got executed at this price... Nifty should go up too at least for a short while
Comment: Nifty... 11466.25 is the 23.6% retracement of Wave-III. It may find some support here. If it breaks through this support it could reach:
11395.7
11302.9
11264
But there could be volatility and consolidation so one has to be nimble about trading
Comment: 11493.95 is the next of my probability levels. Right now it is creating resistance. If it breaks through then it could reach:
11532
11543.75
Comment: Closed Bank Nifty long trade at cost.
Comment: Shorted Nifty Sep again. 11495 SL. Targets as mentioned above
Trade active: Resistance levels for this session:
11517
11532
11543.75
Comment: Prices mentioned in these comments are of Nifty Sep futures
Trade closed manually: 11532 could not be breached... lets see what tomorrow brings
All index positions closd
Comment: Probable resistance and support ranges for short term and positional trades.

Positional Trades:
R4 - 12072
R3 - 11936
R2 - 11800
R1 - 11758
Pivot - 11580.65
S1 - 11402
S2 - 11360
S3 - 11224
S4 - 11088

Short Term Trades:
R4 - 11705
R3 - 11651
R2 - 11597
R1 - 11580
Pivot - 11509.35
S1 - 11438
S2 - 11421
S3 - 11367
S4 - 11313
Comment: Price levels mentioned in the last comment are for Nifty September futures
Comment: The 1 hr and 30 min stochastics are very low so tomorrow (6th Sept) it may go up to about 11600-11610. Bank Nifty is showing a similar pattern of stochastics and that would help Nifty rise about 100 points.

Of course these days since there is no real trend anything can happen...
Comment: Seems like Nifty will hit 11580
Comment: Shorted Nifty July futures at 11560 since it seemed like 11580 would not be hit.
Comment: Shorted Bank Nifty July futures
Comment: There is so much noise in the price action... am trading with 30 min Heiken Aishi candles and just waiting for a colour change in both Nifty and Bank Nifty...

Both short trades are already in profit
Comment: Shorted more lots in Nifty and Bank Nifty
Comment: Today the Nifty high came within about 10 points of closing the gap up of 27th August. Tomorrow it may rise to completely close it but I doubt it will sustain.
Comment: I was referring to Nifty Sep futures when talking about the gap. It was about 10 points in Sep futures but around 30 points in the spot market
Comment: The short term resistance levels mentioned above are still valid. Today R1 - 11580 provided resistance though Nifty Sep tried to break it and reached 11603 but could not sustain.
Comment: The low of August 27th daily candle was 11614. Todays high was 11615... shorted Nifty with an SL of 11635
Comment: Correction... SL of 11655... my support/resistance levels for today are 11651/11597/11580/11509
Comment: All prices are for Nifty Sep
Comment: Added to short position @ 11638 Sep futures
Comment: Over 200 points profit since this chart was posted. Today shorted with multiple lots in Sept futures but went with 5 min candles... quite profitable without the risk of holding overnight... Plan to do this for the next few days in Nifty, Bank Nifty and certain non index futures...

I think it is useless to try and predict prices when things are so volatile... the trend is definitely down in the index but there could be unexpected retracements on a day to day basis, which could lock up margin money.

Its now more about money management than analysis...
Comment: My S2 Positional target and S3 Short terms target met. Shorting Nifty since this post has been very profitable. Started shorting since 11735 Sept Futures and booking profits regularly
Comment: Nifty hit my 61.8% retracement target and I closed my short positions. Today I went long on Nifty and Bank Nifty as a positional trade. (September Futures)
Comment: Closed long position yesterday morning since it did not work out too well then shorted again and holding position in Sep 27 futures.

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