No, I am not joking- try this with your ward -give him a piece of chart -explaining him rules of the game.
4th March2015- RBI day -can't forget when I caught the top@9120- Market opens gap up & closes deep in red- as suggested to my fellow office colleagues in Cogencis where my passion was born- because I am a contrarian- a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion- I face lot of criticim- which is part & parcel of any game.
I think I have done better so far with tops@9120 & interim top@9869 which likely looks connecting wave within larger B-wave.
Rally which started in India Nifty in year 1990 travelled a choppy phase in Jan2008 from 6357 Highs -first time which completed 3rd wave in current primary wave sequence.
Who can forget 2008 & Kasab-
Mohammed Ajmal Amir Kasab -who has left a scar for India was evident that something bad is going to happen to us as country when fall at 6357 started in Jan2008- telling the story that price discounts the event first. So, post that incident market went for another high as market always looks into future.
After this choppy phase which is triangle having 5 internal legs (A)-(B)-(C)-(D) & (E) where (E) ended at 5118 in August2013- We saw a thrust out of the triangle which took to new highs@9119 & completed the primary wave sequence.
This primary wave sequence circled 1-2-3-4-5 waves completes one higher degree wave count which will be "Cycle Degree"
Post 5th wave in primary sequence the move was very choppy to lows@6825forming intermediate A-wave . The rally from 6825 was impulsive to 8969 highs which I am taking it as "a-wave" within larger (B)-wave-then we had a recent fall to 7893 lows which completed "b-wave" & current rally- assuming to be "c-wave" within larger B-wave possibily has completed or shall complete close to 9200-9300 zone.
Going below 8969- key level & 7893- critical level shall make a stronger case for the C-wave which is an assumption & possible alternate.
I would love to have your comments.
Our confirmation point is 8968-8969- Key Zone shall put this analysis on firm footing. In current scenario- one has to wait for the bounce to see what kind of bounce we get so that we can plan to sell close to highs or below key zone 8968-8969.
Multi Day Island Pattern
It is a kind f reversal pattern so current gap down should act as resistance.
There is multi day Island pattern means gap up & gap down, leaving trading days as a marooned island can be a possibility.
Use the Blue & Red Gaps as a reference zone for your trading in the current session.
If prices go in the zone 9100-9125 -gets resistance & starts falling below 9100 -going below 9075 -putting day high as stops after a new high for the day & selling below 9075 should be the strategy for safe trading & risky traders can look for the zone 9110-9125 as selling zone but be careful as it should start falling below 9100-cannot sustain above 9100
Going below the gap zone 9035 & sustaining below can also be looked as selling reference
Vice-Versa Gap zone 9035-9048 if Nifty holds it can be looked as a short term intraday buying opportunity.
Moving below 9130 & breaking 9025 shall mark 9219 as top for medium term & we can look to sell for a downside move -targets shall be open downside once 9024 is broken - we will come up with projections next.
First, Nifty has to start moving below 9130 & later 9024 - as confirmation points.
We shall sell Nifty if zone of 9130-9140 is captured by bears. meaning if it goes below 9130-9140 zone with stops above day high for targets 9100- 9050-9025. If 9025 gets broken then deep downside.
Long calls only above 9200 if sustains for 15 mins or more.
Hello All Fellow Traders,
Our key level to activate this call is 8968 - which again has to be inspected once it goes below that level next.
(B) wave have some space more on upside till 9950-10,000 zone where channel top comes in picture.
We cannot deny a spike in that zone & closing within the channel later after new highs above channel.
Till then this scenario still exists.
B- Wave resumes upside.
Just enjoying - Market doing its job.
Update - "Nifty Without Ghotala"
It can turn out to be extreme bullish case in Nifty as per below mentioned analysis where system is working perfect but the sad part was system wasn't working properly between 2008 fall from 6500 levels to 5118 till 2013 - lot of issues so market was sideways & could not decide its larger direction- till 2013 - when it started moving from lows of 5118 - It was early sign of hope which we all of us were witnessed in "2014"- The Man of Hope or the Hope for a comman man.
Sensex as new historical highs of 32000. Nifty close to 9900- Nifty without Ghotala.
Falls on the channel & completes our target of 10,000 as stated in the above update - 14:39 Hrs @17th June 2017 when Nifty was trading at 9588
"(B) wave have some space more on upside till 9950-10,000 zone where channel top comes in picture"
Next set of development will be very important for the Index.
I don't know we will see this C-wave or not but if you see FTSE analysis -that looks choppy & Nifty current leg also looks choppy so I took this B-Leg when it started moving from 9800 to 9900.
Adding this image for my records.
Short Term - Bounce
Said in short term update last week that bounce could be expected if Nifty holds above 9700 levels which likely seems correct as Global markets are positive with SGX Nifty 50+ points at 08:00 Hrs IST.
Short Term Update on 11th Aug2017
Long Term - Looking for confirmation
Longer term we still wait for confirmation -which could be end of B-wave@10138
Opened At New Life Time High@10341
We are still on with the current count as B- wave -if it breaks upside above channel then I will take - Nifty without Ghotala update mentioned above.
Falls from Channel top in B-Wave @10490-10500. Still taking this rise as B-Wave as suggested earlier.
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
You deserve 100 % respect & " BIG Thank You" on behalf of everyone reading & learning from your charts
Requesting you please keep posting ... this is gem of a work & definitely not to miss!!!