Analysis : Nifty 6% Up already - Why ? & Rising wedge Formation

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty is having clear rising wedge in Uptrend and they breakout downside mostly, sometimes known as " Bear Rising Wedge". But we also have GST bill passage coming week which will be major news for Nifty .

There is popular adage in trading community - " Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact ". In My Opinion, , Nifty has already imbibed the GST bill thats why it moved from 8000's to 8600's in 30days which is almost 6%...Hold your Breath - more to come to blow your mind, Nifty moved from 6800's to 8600's within 150 days which is 25% UpMove, Whooping right ? In 5 months, your capital should have grown by 25%. Markets are at peak already with many stocks at 52 week highs. Do you smell something here ? Seems like Buying the rumor has already happened and now its time to Sell the fact ??. In my opinion, Market has already factored in positive momentum of Bill but still there may be little move left till 9000 but not sure.
Expect some major correction after the bill passage bcos market never came down more than 2% in the current bullish rally. So Nifty is just waiting for tipping point to crash aggressively but when immediately after bill passage or sometime later is not known.
Here in this chart we have bearish rising wedge , so who knows probably its the tipping point, bcos next week with bill passage a small rally up n a crash ? Whatever it is if it breaks-out I will short Nifty as per my usual trading plan. Fundamental Analysis is to give an overall view n Technical analysis is to Trade.

This topic is wide open for discussion, I welcome your views n comments..Feel free to drop a line...
Hit Like button to keep me motivated to post more ideas...Thanks for your support !
Happy Trading !!
Comment: Beginning of End ?? Anyways happened as predicted...Enjoy the Game !
Comment: Seems wedge did its magic..look out for 8500's after small pullback up


This might be a scenario that we may look to happen. But looking a present situation where rumors are hyped so much and created this positive sentiment and meanwhile US markets also performing well, I believe it will stay on for a while and we may see a breakout upside from current levels. As per technicals, if any day Nifty closes below 8625 then automatically there will be trend reversal. I recommend to be stocks specific in this scenario as you may find some good buying stocks as well as some good selling stocks too. I must say that the rising wedge breakout as shown by you above will decide the market trend in coming days.
+1 Reply
InsiderB NeeteshJain
Yeah Neetesh, you are right... This is a deciding scenario like cat on wall, can jump on anyside. Monsoon also better than expected, so we should be ready to trade any direction. As you have pointed picking up stock specific trading will be very good idea n we can reduce full exposure to Nifty also by concentrating on some stocks. With GST, service based (exempt IT MNC's), Consumer Goods,FMCG have the potential to be huge gainers.
Yes, It could be scenario which could play out as per insider.....but People lose patience in this kind of setup & take wrong we should wait key points to be broken like 8570...8540...& finally 8490...from where Nifty pulled almost 200 points..Regards, Abhishek
+1 Reply
InsiderB AbhishekHSinghCMT
Yep,as you have mentioned those levels offer good support & hinders downmove, especially the 8500's zone is vital to break n psychological level too