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Nifty: July Could Be Decisive

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
I believe that this month could decide a clear direction for us. This week it had a breakdown below 10700 support level and an important trendline (of course signs of bearishness). But the Friday's pullback was as strong as the breakdown. To my surprise there was no sustained reaction from 10700 and it managed to close above support.

What Next?
Scenario 1 : We may be retesting the breakdown area. In that case, we should see some signs of reversal in the 10700-10765 zone. If we resume the downtrend from there we will be heading towards 10520 and 10430 next week.

Scenario 2: Breakdown that we had last week fails. The short covering above 10850-10900 zone will give enough energy to break the long term resistance trendline on sustained basis. Sustaining above 10765 would be the first sign for bears to get cautious.

So let's see what happens.
All the best for next week.

Regards
Jul 01
Comment:
Similar pattern near previous bases.
Just an observation.
Jul 01
Comment: If you press the play button in the following post, you will notice that Nifty has been facing resistance from the channel trendline on this monthly chart. This time it did not just touch the TL but breached and took a monthly close above it. But then it created a brearish setup and took a U-turn.
At previous two touches we entered into bear markets of 2011 and 2015. I dun want to reach at any conclusion at this point of time but we ll keep a close eye on Daily chart to see how Nifty reacts at resistances.
#Just Observations#

Jul 02
Comment: Nifty had a harsh morning reaction from the resistance zone of 10700 (earlier a support). Later few stocks gave sharp recovery from the lows. The continuation on the downside will achieve the bearish targets. If somehow we get back to 10700, the price action will tell us who is winning near resistance, the buyer or the seller. Just have to wait patiently in that case.
All the best.
Jul 03
Comment: The level 10700-10720 may again provide a shorting opportunity.
Jul 03
Comment: :) Highly volatile session. We should get used to such volatility in future. Sebi margin norms are encouraging intraday trading. So lot of indecision.
Anyways, buyers are attacking 10700 levels and i dun see any severe reaction by the bears. Bulls had conviction to buy at 10680, which is not good for bears.
Even if bears push the 10680 level, the 10630 seems to be holding.
All in all we have been churning in a wider range of 10600 to 10700.
Ranges are painful and eat capital. Careful.
Jul 03
Comment:
Jul 04
Comment: Heading for prz.
Jul 05
Comment:
Holding right at the resistance zone. Let's see if it gives a failure above resistance or slams down from here. Wait and watch for confirmation in this volatile environment.
Jul 05
Comment:
Bulls knocking at the door. Will it open? Let's see. Beware of failures though.
All the best.
great analysis sirji, lets watch watch which way nifty makes explosive moves, thanks.
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@theeye, welcome.
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Good Analysis, Thanks.
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Bravetotrade praveen.bhatiya
@praveen.bhatiya, All b'coz of appreciation from brothers. Always welcome.
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Batman please check this
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