NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15860.5 / 15881.35 / 15701 / 15746.45
Trading Range Low to High: 180 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 90 points
India VIX: 13.23 / +6.27%
FII DII activities: -731 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty ended the day as if today was 19-7-21, just around the same level. This is becoming a regular feature nowadays.
With the increased VIX, Nifty finally expanded its range to 180 points and remained downward for the most part of the day except for the relief rally around 1300 hrs and a mini-rally after the sell 0ff in the last one hour.
It appeared that call writing was heavy even at 15750 as the level could not be breached.
Nifty would need a great amount of effort from the heavyweights to bring it back on track. With only 2 sessions to go in this series, 16000 is unlikely to be attained unless there is a strong gap-up followed by a short covering in the next 2 sessions.
TOP 3 LOSERS
DR REDDY - A massive 10%+ fall in the scrip dented the spirits even though it is not a heavyweight. This fall has wiped out the gains of the last several weeks.
CIPLA - One more from the Pharma sector that washed ashore and broke 50 DMA decisively. The Pharma sector was affected today but the top 2 losers from Pharma in Nifty is something quite an unusual scenario especially due to the fact that the sector was strong post-Covid.
AXIS BANK - Like all Nifty 50 members, this one too fell sharply post results. This seems to be the trend now and especially on the day after the results have been announced.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HINDALCO - A strong follow-up moves from the scrip after a good performance on 26-7 and is now heading higher into the resistance zone. The RSI on the daily chart is supporting above 60 so it may well be able to create a new ATH.
SBI LIFE - The star performer of 26-7 did well today as well though it witnessed some sharp down move, it recovered very well and made yet another ATH close.
TATA STEEL - A gap-up opening and it sustained the negativity in the market making it close at yet another ATH. RSI is also looking good so this is heading higher in the coming session's subject of course to its results.
POSITIVES
Just because I have a section where I am forced to write that INFOSYS closed above 1600 is a positive sign.
Nifty managed to close above 15700 is also a positive sign.
Of the Banknifty community, SBIN showed good strength maybe as its result is not yet out.
NEGATIVES
Nifty has broken 15800 yet another time and the bear camps in the 15835-50 may be dancing with joy as they succeeded in dragging Nifty back to 15700 after a modestly good start.
AXIS BANK, KOTAK BANK, HDFC, ITC, and RELIANCE dragged Nifty by the collar and made it hard for the bulls to bring it back from breaking the 15700 lines.
FIIs are still Net Sellers at 1400+ Crores.
TRADING RANGE FOR 28-07-21
The support line for Nifty now moves down to 15650-700 with the resistances being 15750-775-800-15835-50-900. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential.
34400-600 is still the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RELIANCE tested its 200 DMA and also the FIB support at 2040. This was long overdue and hopefully, this will lead to reduced negativity from hereon.
HDFCBANK closed below 200 DMA on 26-7 and is on the line today. And its sibling HDFC broke its 200 DMA today so the reaction tomorrow is going to be interesting. In comparison to HDFCBANK, HDFC is a fast-mover on either side of its day.
FMCG scrips are under pressure but the wholesaler of FMCG goods DMART, is scaling higher highs. This is quite an interesting situation to have and is open to interpretation.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15860.5 / 15881.35 / 15701 / 15746.45
Trading Range Low to High: 180 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 90 points
India VIX: 13.23 / +6.27%
FII DII activities: -731 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty ended the day as if today was 19-7-21, just around the same level. This is becoming a regular feature nowadays.
With the increased VIX, Nifty finally expanded its range to 180 points and remained downward for the most part of the day except for the relief rally around 1300 hrs and a mini-rally after the sell 0ff in the last one hour.
It appeared that call writing was heavy even at 15750 as the level could not be breached.
Nifty would need a great amount of effort from the heavyweights to bring it back on track. With only 2 sessions to go in this series, 16000 is unlikely to be attained unless there is a strong gap-up followed by a short covering in the next 2 sessions.
TOP 3 LOSERS
DR REDDY - A massive 10%+ fall in the scrip dented the spirits even though it is not a heavyweight. This fall has wiped out the gains of the last several weeks.
CIPLA - One more from the Pharma sector that washed ashore and broke 50 DMA decisively. The Pharma sector was affected today but the top 2 losers from Pharma in Nifty is something quite an unusual scenario especially due to the fact that the sector was strong post-Covid.
AXIS BANK - Like all Nifty 50 members, this one too fell sharply post results. This seems to be the trend now and especially on the day after the results have been announced.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HINDALCO - A strong follow-up moves from the scrip after a good performance on 26-7 and is now heading higher into the resistance zone. The RSI on the daily chart is supporting above 60 so it may well be able to create a new ATH.
SBI LIFE - The star performer of 26-7 did well today as well though it witnessed some sharp down move, it recovered very well and made yet another ATH close.
TATA STEEL - A gap-up opening and it sustained the negativity in the market making it close at yet another ATH. RSI is also looking good so this is heading higher in the coming session's subject of course to its results.
POSITIVES
Just because I have a section where I am forced to write that INFOSYS closed above 1600 is a positive sign.
Nifty managed to close above 15700 is also a positive sign.
Of the Banknifty community, SBIN showed good strength maybe as its result is not yet out.
NEGATIVES
Nifty has broken 15800 yet another time and the bear camps in the 15835-50 may be dancing with joy as they succeeded in dragging Nifty back to 15700 after a modestly good start.
AXIS BANK, KOTAK BANK, HDFC, ITC, and RELIANCE dragged Nifty by the collar and made it hard for the bulls to bring it back from breaking the 15700 lines.
FIIs are still Net Sellers at 1400+ Crores.
TRADING RANGE FOR 28-07-21
The support line for Nifty now moves down to 15650-700 with the resistances being 15750-775-800-15835-50-900. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential.
34400-600 is still the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RELIANCE tested its 200 DMA and also the FIB support at 2040. This was long overdue and hopefully, this will lead to reduced negativity from hereon.
HDFCBANK closed below 200 DMA on 26-7 and is on the line today. And its sibling HDFC broke its 200 DMA today so the reaction tomorrow is going to be interesting. In comparison to HDFCBANK, HDFC is a fast-mover on either side of its day.
FMCG scrips are under pressure but the wholesaler of FMCG goods DMART, is scaling higher highs. This is quite an interesting situation to have and is open to interpretation.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.