- The price has been moving in this range for the last 2 weeks. - The range is 650 points wide. Using the measurement objective provides us with a target of 650 points in either direction.
- This means that, whenever the price moves out of this range, we can expect 17k or 15k. - I'd be looking to trade either direction with a strict SL.
- Currently, the bias is bearish because the HTF structure is bearish. I'd be willing to short near 16450-16400 if the price gives me an opportunity. - In case, the price moves above 16450 and sustains, the intermediate bias will shift to bullish.
Nifty - M15
These are the levels that I am looking at.
- The initial supply zone is the point where the HTF sellers entered the range high and pushed the price downwards. - The secondary supply is the point where the HTF sellers dumped the price today.
- The price is at the flip zone and can move either way. I am looking at 3 favourable scenarios where the HTF sellers defend their positions and push the price towards the unfilled gap. - We can also observe the formation of the Head & Shoulder pattern, which will get confirmed only after the breakdown of the neckline.
- The breakdown of the H&S will also confirm the breakdown of the flip zone, in which case we can expect the price to fill the gap. - The depth of H&S is about 270 points, which also aligns with the bottom of the unfilled gap.
- Hence, all of these factors are adding up for a beautiful short, either tomorrow or on Thursday. - This analysis may or may not work out. So, please do not take any random trades based on this.
Nifty - M5
- Beware of the trendline breakout since there is a supply zone overhead. The breakout can be a fake breakout just to trap more longs before moving downwards.
Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers! Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick) Community Manager (India), TradingView
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Update (25 May):
- Breakout of the trend line to trap longs. - Run into supply, dump back to take out all the long SLs. - Clean 240+ points move from the highs.
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Update (25 May):
- Clear rejection from the secondary supply zone after trapping the longs.
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Update (26 May): Almost hit the target of H&S and reversed. Front ran by 0.35%.
A close above flip zone (16400) is desperately required by bulls in order to move the market upwards. Thank you posting such analysis sir. They are quite informative.