Continuing from my initial submission of Feb2018 on Head & Shoulders
pattern, the subsequent 6 weeks are proving my point. Nifty
is building the right shoulder of this H&S
pattern, which is also indicated by the reflection of the left side, on the right. There will be some ups and downs on the short term, but, unlike many other views, I strongly feel the Nifty
is headed south on the long term. This will not be a sudden fall like in 2008, but will move down gradually. The next level it will find support is at 9730 on the medium term. On the short term though, it will move in the range of 10050-10300.
It has a daunting task of crossing 10600 in order to defy this bearish trend
, and for that to happen, global and Indian economic and political indicators have to turn Green. I do not see that happen in the short to medium term, with trade war intensifying between US and China (dont know when US will resume its fight against India) and with semi-final election season is already on, with BJP fighting hard to snatch power in Karnataka (doubtful) and retain hold in the North (challenging). All of this keeps the market in a struggle.
Will the 4th quarter/2018FY results prove to be that factor to take the market higher? Lets see!