Dalal Street Shaken Ahead of Monthly Expiry — What’s Next?

Indian equity markets witnessed a sharp corrective move last week, with the Nifty sliding nearly 2.5% to close around 25,050. The sell-off came at a sensitive juncture—just ahead of monthly expiry.

Adding to the nervousness, India VIX jumped sharply by 24.8% to 14.19, signaling a sudden rise in uncertainty and trader caution.

A combination of geopolitical tensions, pre-Union Budget 2026 jitters, and mixed Q3 earnings weighed heavily on market sentiment, prompting profit booking across sectors.

◉ Technical Setup
Nifty is currently testing the lower end of its rising channel, a technically important area. A mild relief bounce is possible from these levels.

However, a decisive breakdown below the channel support could trigger another leg of sharp selling in the coming sessions, making this zone extremely crucial for near-term direction.

◉ Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones
25,000 – 24,900: Immediate psychological and technical support
24,500 – 24,400: Strong base with heavy put writer concentration

Resistance Zones
25,400 – 25,500: Immediate hurdle with significant call writing
26,000 – 26,100: Major supply zone and strong resistance

◉ Near-Term View
Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the coming week. While the broader structure has weakened, a short-term bounce from the 25,000 zone cannot be ruled out, given oversold conditions and strong psychological support.

That said, any recovery should be viewed with caution and may face stiff resistance at higher levels.

◉ Suggested Strategy
A cautious, stock-specific strategy is preferred for the week ahead. Short-term oversold signals may support a bounce, but the broader trend has weakened. Avoid aggressive longs and focus on protecting gains.