Nifty faced heavy profit booking today in the institutional zone led by banks. Yesterday more calls were written than puts which showed sign that movement on the upside was limited.
Looking at the American and European markets all of the markets are currently trading flat same with SGX nifty also.
After such big movement days market usually likes to consolidate on the following day.
Since global cues also show signs of consolidation Nifty is more likely to be rangebound inside today's range itself.
Looking at the OI data 15800 calls have huge OI build up and 15500 puts have huge OI.
15700 puts had good OI yesterday but due to today's fall we can see unwinding in 15700puts and writing in 15700 calls.
Between 15570 and 15700 I think market will be volatile.
If market opens gap up tomorrow and crosses 15700 it will be most likely a false breakout which will again push price towards today close price.
if market opens gap down and sustains below 15600 in the 1st 1hr then we might witness further sell off.(15632 is good support on a 1hr close basis. which nifty failed to achieve even with today's fall.)
if nifty opens below 15600 and gives 5min close below 15569 then scalp till 15530.
Short scalp if there is a false breakout at 15700, target today's close price.
Since Monday I was very cautious on the upside due to over-extension of the market, that's why didn't roll up the sold 15400 and 15500 puts even though market went up.
I was short on 15500/15400 puts and 16100 calls.
Today The sudden fall resulted in premium expansion: even though 15500 is far away; my profits in 15500 puts came to cost to cost.
So exited 15500puts cost to cost and rolled down 16100 calls to 15800 calls.(15500 puts again went to profits but it's all about safety for me)
currently maintaining a range of 15800 to 15400 on nifty and planning to roll the strikes based on tomorrow's price action.
This is my personal view on the market