With the broader market continues to sell off for more than a year and half now and recently the selloff witnessed in the front line stocks of Nifty 50, the question that arises in our minds are:
Are we in the bear market?
Is there any chances for fresh buying to hit the street?
Let us examine in the lens of Analysis to understand the main picture.
Odds that favor the bear market scenario:
1. The top of 12,103 in Nifty does qualify as a major top in terms of
Price Analysis as per theory
Time Analysis as per theory and
Price & Time Analysis as per theory
2. The 5 wave bull market structure (as per Wave) is in place, qualifies for June top is in place
3. The recent selloff structure does qualifies for the beginning wave structure of bear market. (The current selloff from 12,103 to 10,782).
These major analysis do seems to suggest we are already in bear market.
Let us examine reasons, which helps to favor the bulls.
1. The current selloff has stalled exactly at 10,780 mark, which is a very important support which suggest, Bull Run could continue towards new highs from here.
2. The most important support of 10,288 is yet to be tested and currently seems to be little far off (at least for few weeks), as we write. A break and close below 10,288 especially on weekly closing will confirm the bear market.
3. The charts of Nifty Mid Cap and Nifty Small Cap (which we do analysis later), is at a crucial juncture whereas per Price, Time and Price and Time qualifies for the start of new bull market. Caveat, this month low should hold for this qualification.
4. A close above 11,388 favors more bullishness to the analysis. (Currently C.M.P is near to it as we write it).
Observation: 78% chances we have entered into bear market, and chances for this will increase only as we take off 10,780 and 10,288 on weekly closing basis. This is purely for education purpose based on Analysis and hence we have not concluded with a buy or sell. Just for observation: 11,388 on upside and 10,780 and 10,288 on the downside. Once any of these levels are triggered, will update with our analysis.