Nifty Futures & Options data analysis & view for 20 April

On daily charts, we observe

• Hanging man candlestick. Under normal conditions, a 150 point tail would have been significant candle, but given the way markets have moved in the last 2 months, we need further observations

• While it has formed Hanging Man candlestick, it has also managed to close significantly above 20 day EMA. If Nifty has to go down it has to break that level in next 2-3 days

• If, however, Nifty survives above 20 day EMA, then it could be an indication of more upside & in the next 14 trading sessions probability of heading towards 50 day EMA will be much higher.

• (Also note above 9325 levels Hanging man pattern gets invalidated )

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Coming to data analysis, FIIs net sold 90 contracts worth 6.56 Cr in Futures

Futures data

FIIs exited both from Long positions (1182 contracts) & Short positions (1092 contracts)

As markets opened significantly higher Retail participants booked profits in 4558 Long contracts and took a hit in 7519 Short contracts.

Pro traders exited from Long positions to the tune of 3441 contracts & added 2233 Short contracts.

Options data analysis

Call Option
- FIIs added 12.2K Long & added 7.5K Short contracts in Call option
- Retail participants added 73.9 Long contracts and also added 73.9K Short contracts
- Pro traders added 20K Long Call and 24.8K contracts were Shorted by them.

Put Options
- FIIs bought 15.8K Puts & 17.2K Puts were Shorted by them.
- Retail participants bought 1.07 Lakh Puts and 88.8K Put Contracts were Shorted by them.
- Pro traders bought 8.4K Puts & 26.5K Puts were Shorted by them.

Important levels on the lower side 9216 / 9180 / 9118 / 9080
Important upside level 9320 / 9405 / 9508 / 9585

All in all, despite Nifty being up 3%, we have not seen rise in Open Interest. It has rather reduced by 6.5K Contracts.

Though we are clear with the levels & possible movements (discussed in the 1st part), Monday is recommended to be an observational day to understand the bigger picture - whether OI is building up or not and if it is, then how market participants are positioning their trades.

Make your move after understanding the battleground you are in and knowing the strength & weakness of your opposition. In trading, remember for every buyer there is a seller and vice-versa. So it is You vs others. And it is important to understand who you are trading against.


Take care & be safe...!!!

Like & Follow

Comment:

Nifty just kept on going up-down-up-down-up-down throughout the day confusing traders and eventually closing flat. The view not to trade in Nifty today & just observe turned out to be good idea... :-)

Trade active:

As Nifty is trading below 20 day EMA,, selling Nifty 92000 Call option may be considered 58-65
CMP 58.5

Comment:

Nifty 9200 Call option update
recommended selling above 58
CMP 42

Continue to hold

Comment:

Prima facie it looks like expiry close may not be below 8800

Consider selling Nifty 8800 Put option around 60
Cmp 58

Comment:

strategy Update
Nifty 9200 Call option CMP 41
Nifty 8800 Put option 1

Total profit 75*( 118.5 -42) = Rs 5737.5

Consider booking profits...!!!

Happy trading

Comment:

Prima facie Data analysis does not suggest nifty will fall below 9200 today.
Temptation of Buying 9200 Put should be avoided.