NIFTY for 11th September

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Please read this post along with my post on "Nifty for week 11-13th Sept" to get complete idea of the concept. On Monday, Nifty staged unexpected rally. Unexpected because I did not expect it to cross 11000 even for brief period. But it did happen probably due to reasons mentioned in the post mentioned above so I am not repeating it here. On Monday, SIAM released Auto sales data which revealed auto sector crisis in new light. It said Auto sales were down in August 2019 by 23.5% which are worst ever figures ( worst since 1997-98 when SIAM started recording monthly data). Take a look- Passenger vehicle ( PV ) domestic sales down by 31.6 %, Two-wheeler sales( key barometer for understanding rural economy) down by 22.24 %; Commercial vehicle sales down by a whopping 38%. In PV category, August was 10th consecutive month of declining sales. Plant closure for few days is being reported from all manufacturers in almost all plants- Maruti Suzuki, M & M, Ashok Leyland, TVS motors, you name it! Tomorrow market may show some reaction these figures. But I am not expecting big fall since part of this was discounted in market when manufacturers announced monthly sales figures earlier this month - so such bad figures were not entirely unexpected.
1) On Monday FII were net sellers by only 188 Crs and DIIs were net buyers by around 686.5 Crs . FIIs didn't sell much yesterday but they might do it tomorrow due to bad sentiment triggered by above mentioned auto sales figures.
2) Option Chain data: On PUT side, total highest OI (30.23 lks) and highest fresh Put writing (9.26 lks) is at 10900 strike. 2nd highest OI is at 10800 strike but 2nd highest fresh put writing is at 11000 strike. But CMP being 11003, Nifty can slip below 11000 easily but 10900 will act as very strong support. On CALL side, total highest OI (17.11 lks) is at 11000 strike but highest fresh Call writing (3.30 lks) is at 11050 strike. There is unwinding on strikes above 11100. So now 11000 is not at all a very strong resistance. Less call writing also does not suggest good resistance at higher strikes. But for tomorrow, on the basis of OC data, 11050 can be taken as resistance.
3) Charts: Nifty made a green candle with higher high and higher low above friday's candle. For past 3 days, Nifty is making HHs and HLs . As shown in NIFTY post of week, it might continue till 11100. On 15 minute chart, I can see both Selling and buying areas. So take trades if price comes in these regions with SL of 25-30 points and target of 50-60 points.
All the best. Happy trading.
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