Support Holds, Volatility Fades — Fresh Rally Ahead for Nifty?

Indian markets were volatile last week. Initial uncertainty after the Union Budget was followed by a strong positive reaction to the India–US trade deal.

Nifty moved in a wide range during the week but ended higher.

India VIX fell by around 12%, showing that volatility has reduced after major events.

◉ Key Levels

Immediate Support: 25,400–25,500
Immediate Resistance: 26,000
Strong Resistance: 26,200–26,300

The sharp sell-off after the gap-up opening found a base near 25,500, establishing it as a strong demand zone.

◉ Technical View

The overall trend remains positive above 25,400. A sustained move above 26,000 is needed for further upside, and a clear breakout above 26,300 could lead to the next rally.

◉ Key Triggers for the Week

India–US Trade Deal: Lower US tariffs (18%) improve visibility for exporters and foreign investors, supporting sentiment.

Inflation Data: Domestic CPI/WPI and global inflation prints will influence interest rate expectations and risk appetite.

Q3 FY26 Earnings: Results from banks, financials, IT, and other index heavyweights will drive sector leadership and Nifty direction.

◉ Trading Strategy

Traders should follow a buy-on-dips strategy near support levels and avoid taking aggressive positions until Nifty decisively moves above the 26,000–26,300 zone.