Once in a while you get revealing signals through unexpected quarters. Today, Nifty was not expected to open with big gap and neither was SGX nifty indicationg that. Yet it openned. Why? How? And then it collapsed but staged surprising recovery and Banknifty even surpassed morning high. So who was buying so much? Let's see.
1) FII & DII data: Here are the revealing figures I wrote about above. The provisional figures show that FIIs bought shares worth 12523 Crs and sold shares worth 5331 Crs - net buying of 7192 Crs! I haven't seen such decisive net buying figure for a long long time either from FIIs or DIIs. Contrast this with DIIs- they were net sellers by 186 Crs (Buy-4164 Crs; Sell- 4350 Crs). Dig deeper- the final figures for yesterday show that FIIs were net buyers in Equity by 1518 Crs and in index futures by 1243 Crs. In stock futures, FIIs bought futures worth 41507 Crs (very high figure) and sold futures worth 41280 (very high again), net buying of 227 Crs. Put this entire activity of two days in perspective- is there any doubt that FIIs are buying? And, even though DIIs are turning sellers, the direction is given by FII buying. So, do not short; Go long at right levels.
2) Option chain data: On PUT side, highest total OI (29.75 lakhs) and highest fresh Put writing (14.70 lakhs) is at 11800 strike. So expiry will definitely above 11800. On CALL side, highest total OI (32.86 lakhs) is at 12000 but highest fresh Call writing (7.70 lakhs) is at 11850. Now Call writing is less and this can easily change tomorow. 2nd highest total OI (20.27 lakhs) is seen at 11900 but Call writing here too is low. So effectively there is no credible resistance before 12000 and 11800 shows very strong support.
3) Chrts: Charts are not giving much clue, at least to me. Next resistance is seen at 11981 ( high made on 5th July, budget day) which is same as 12000. Today Nifty openned gap-up and finished as a red base-like candle with open=high price and low almost at yesterday's close. This represents actually a bullish pattern. So if we open gap up (above today's close) and low doesn't break today's low, then most likely we will close at or above 11900. But there is no clear cut buying area. Only, logical buying level is at today's low which should act as support since it also is near yesterday's high.
All the best. Happy trading.
1) FII & DII data: Here are the revealing figures I wrote about above. The provisional figures show that FIIs bought shares worth 12523 Crs and sold shares worth 5331 Crs - net buying of 7192 Crs! I haven't seen such decisive net buying figure for a long long time either from FIIs or DIIs. Contrast this with DIIs- they were net sellers by 186 Crs (Buy-4164 Crs; Sell- 4350 Crs). Dig deeper- the final figures for yesterday show that FIIs were net buyers in Equity by 1518 Crs and in index futures by 1243 Crs. In stock futures, FIIs bought futures worth 41507 Crs (very high figure) and sold futures worth 41280 (very high again), net buying of 227 Crs. Put this entire activity of two days in perspective- is there any doubt that FIIs are buying? And, even though DIIs are turning sellers, the direction is given by FII buying. So, do not short; Go long at right levels.
2) Option chain data: On PUT side, highest total OI (29.75 lakhs) and highest fresh Put writing (14.70 lakhs) is at 11800 strike. So expiry will definitely above 11800. On CALL side, highest total OI (32.86 lakhs) is at 12000 but highest fresh Call writing (7.70 lakhs) is at 11850. Now Call writing is less and this can easily change tomorow. 2nd highest total OI (20.27 lakhs) is seen at 11900 but Call writing here too is low. So effectively there is no credible resistance before 12000 and 11800 shows very strong support.
3) Chrts: Charts are not giving much clue, at least to me. Next resistance is seen at 11981 ( high made on 5th July, budget day) which is same as 12000. Today Nifty openned gap-up and finished as a red base-like candle with open=high price and low almost at yesterday's close. This represents actually a bullish pattern. So if we open gap up (above today's close) and low doesn't break today's low, then most likely we will close at or above 11900. But there is no clear cut buying area. Only, logical buying level is at today's low which should act as support since it also is near yesterday's high.
All the best. Happy trading.