Tables have turned it seems. Yesterday I wrote that I am getting mixed signals, today I got reverse signals! The effect of corporate tax cut seems to be going off and effect of demand slowdown, dent in fiscal deficit and loss in govt revenue seems to be taking precedence. Let's look at the data-
1) FII & DII data: Provisional data shows that FIIs were Net sellers today by 342 Crs and DIIs were also Net sellers by 762 Crs (What?!)- A big surprise. Actually, 2 surprises- One, that DIIs were net sellers; two, volume of net sale is more than double the volume of FIIs! It seems DIIs were keen to book profit than their FII counterparts. Let us check final FII figures furnished for yesterday. FIIs were Net sellers in Equity by 685 Crs, net buyers in index futures by 886 Crs and net Sellers in Stock futures by 818 Crs. In stock futures buy/sell figures are: Buy= 45,164 Crs; Sell= 45,982 Crs. Now what this conveys to me is FIIs have not changed their direction. They are still selling. They are still uncertain and hence trading (shown by high volumes of both, buy & sell figures in stock futures) and not carrying their trades. And the big surprise is DIIs too are booking profits and that opens lower limits.
2) Option chain data: The strong support of 10500 strike that I was referring to yesterday is now looking as strong resistance! On PUT side, the highest total OI is on 11400, 2nd highest total OI is at the strike of 11500 and highest Put writing (5.19 lakhs - very low figure) is at 11450 with sizeable unwinding at 11500 (-13.78 lakhs). Support build-up doesn't inspire confidence. On CALL side, highest total OI and highest total Call writing (14.86 lakhs) is at 10500 now. Other adjacent strikes are also showing good Call writing. So 11500 now looks good resistance. But tomorrow being expiry, this data can easily go astray. Only thing wich I can deduce from this data is that Nifty is not comfortable at higher levels and at 10500, some selling will definitely come through.
3) Charts: Nifty today surprised most with its downward journey. Nifty open = Nifty high today which means that it never developed any strength to go up. Today it broke yesterday's low and closed much below 10500. Next support now is high made on friday, 10380. So based on these movements, I have marked a selling area on 15 min chart. Again, a word of caution, do not take this trade if it comes in later half, say after 1.30 pm.Tides do get reversed during expiry day.
All the best. Happy trading.
1) FII & DII data: Provisional data shows that FIIs were Net sellers today by 342 Crs and DIIs were also Net sellers by 762 Crs (What?!)- A big surprise. Actually, 2 surprises- One, that DIIs were net sellers; two, volume of net sale is more than double the volume of FIIs! It seems DIIs were keen to book profit than their FII counterparts. Let us check final FII figures furnished for yesterday. FIIs were Net sellers in Equity by 685 Crs, net buyers in index futures by 886 Crs and net Sellers in Stock futures by 818 Crs. In stock futures buy/sell figures are: Buy= 45,164 Crs; Sell= 45,982 Crs. Now what this conveys to me is FIIs have not changed their direction. They are still selling. They are still uncertain and hence trading (shown by high volumes of both, buy & sell figures in stock futures) and not carrying their trades. And the big surprise is DIIs too are booking profits and that opens lower limits.
2) Option chain data: The strong support of 10500 strike that I was referring to yesterday is now looking as strong resistance! On PUT side, the highest total OI is on 11400, 2nd highest total OI is at the strike of 11500 and highest Put writing (5.19 lakhs - very low figure) is at 11450 with sizeable unwinding at 11500 (-13.78 lakhs). Support build-up doesn't inspire confidence. On CALL side, highest total OI and highest total Call writing (14.86 lakhs) is at 10500 now. Other adjacent strikes are also showing good Call writing. So 11500 now looks good resistance. But tomorrow being expiry, this data can easily go astray. Only thing wich I can deduce from this data is that Nifty is not comfortable at higher levels and at 10500, some selling will definitely come through.
3) Charts: Nifty today surprised most with its downward journey. Nifty open = Nifty high today which means that it never developed any strength to go up. Today it broke yesterday's low and closed much below 10500. Next support now is high made on friday, 10380. So based on these movements, I have marked a selling area on 15 min chart. Again, a word of caution, do not take this trade if it comes in later half, say after 1.30 pm.Tides do get reversed during expiry day.
All the best. Happy trading.