protrader1969

NIFTY for 20th August

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Hope people made some profits today on Sell side.We are still in consolidation mode but bias now is clearly negative. So I would be comfortable in Sell calls than on Buy calls. As I wrote for 19th August, no or slow response from government and Rupee slide did cause Sell-off today. As we shall see in FII figures, empty talk doesn't please anybody.
1) FII and DII data- Provisional data show that FIIs/FPIs were net Sellers by 306 Crs and DIIs were net Buyers by 386 Crs. But final data show that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity Secondary market by 1342 Crs, in index futures by 294 Crs and in stock futures by 491 Crs. But in Equity 'primary market and others' they bought shares worth 2661 Crs. So as was the earlier trend of value picking, they did some value buying it seems but sold on Secondary market and in futures market. FIIs can continue to sell tomorrow as well.
2) Option chain data- As normally happens with sharp falls, we are seeing substantial unwinding on PUT side. Highest unwinding took place on 10900 strike ( 4.08 lakhs) which looked as next strong support after 11000. Total highest OI is on 11000 strike (17 lakhs) but highest fresh Put writing (5.78 lakhs) is seen on 11100 strike. Second highest total OI (13.93 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. Read above lines again- Highest total OI at 11000, highest writing at 11100 and highest unwinding at 10900. Confusing, right? That's what happens when sudden fall among the talk of bullishness backed by nothing takes palce. No economic data or fundamental data is suggesting any reason for upmove and as DOW theory suggests, since there is no reason for the fall to stop, the larger momentum will continue.
3) On charts, Nifty made a base kind of red candle with high far above and low very near to closing price, with high at around 20 DEMA. So 20 DEMA acted as resistance. This suggests signs of weakness. The close is mere 6.1 points above previous close. The shorting levels are given on chart. The RR is good. If Nifty crosses 11182, abondon the short trade.
All the best. Happy trading.
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