Tomorrow is the day for Bank Nifty to break below 26000, and Nifty will also be down. But the uptrend is intact. Rally is not over.
Some, Subha Ghosh provided following data.
" - - - - NIFTY 10,856.70 (+13.85, +0.13%)
Future 10,749: - Discount of 7.7 Points: - A bit bearish.
VIX 12.64 (-0.09, -0.71%): - This is bullish, for further up move VIX must be below 12.5 and strong up move, it must be below 12.
Future: - Long Build Up with OI Up by 4.22 %
From 2:15 PM to 3:15 PM: - It was either SHORT Buildup or Long Unwinding: - Levels (Future 10873 to 10834.1)
Last 15 min was short covering: - Levels (10840-10851)
Traders have initiated SHORT of the index, which is bearish.
NIfty crosses above 10880 and made a high of 10893.05, which was followed by SHORTS & Long Unwinding: - 10900 levels will act as resistance.
Option: -MAX OI PE @ 10700 followed by 10600 and MAX CE @ 11,000 followed by 10900.
Huge PE writing is seen at 10800 with 8.46 L contracts added.
CE writing is seen at 11,000 with 4.09 L contracts added.
As per option data, NIFTY is to trade in the range of 10800 to 11000.
Analysis on Hourly Chart: - Analysis valid for next 2 to 3 days of time.
Overlay: -
EMA (3) C: - 10862.91 -> Short term bearish.
EMA (5) C: - 10864.25 -> Short term bearish.
EMA (50) C: - 10779.50 -> Bullish
EMA (100) C: - 10728.75 ->Bullish
EMA (200) C: - 10675.02 ->Bullish
ICHIMOKU (fw26) -> 10722 - 10832 -> Bullish
9d Conversion -> 10862.88
26d Base -> 10801.15
26 Chikou Span -> 10807.60
Very short term (couple of hours session) NIFTY has turned bearish, but still NIFTY is in uptrend.
Oscillators: -
RSI (14)->58.88, +ve but weak.
MACD (26,12)->30.47, MACD Exp (9)- Signal Line->32.74, Divergence ->-2.27: - Bearish
MACD (3,5,13): - Negative crossover, which is bearish.
Interference from MACD is shows bearishness.
ADX (14)->26.57: - Shows upside momentum.
CCI (20)-> 50.80: - This is positive, I will only worry if it goes above 200.
Super Trend: - 10807.60 - - - - - - - "
Pranabkolkatay
⋅
Just found in TV that CLSA has upgraded Axis to buy. So fall in Bank Nifty might not be severe (if it happens) . it might oscillate and punish option takers like me. But Nifty trend is simply bullish. Today morning one tip provider called me and requested to try their call. He asked me to purchase a call (for intra day) strike 26600 @130-135 range with target of 175. Stop loss 100. I discourage strongly this type of provider. Instead, I bought a call of Aurobindo Pharma finding it down from 9 to 4.50 strike 600. I am happy because that service provider should be shy in calling me again. And I am hopeful that my call on Aurobindo will be sold in profit by the end of expiry.
Pranabkolkatay
⋅
Sorry aurobindo strike 630 June series.
Pranabkolkatay
⋅
Pranabkolkatay, Till afternoon I was bullish on Nifty but eventually thought its a dangerous assumption. 1. per capita income has been dropped over past few years significantly. 2. Banks are totally in mess. 3. There is no good intelligent move found by the government to recover economy. 4. RBI has become a puppet though I feel previous RBI governor was also not doing proper justice in auditing the banks. 4. Trade deficit is alarmingly high. 5. There is nothing much to cheer anywhere. 6.However I expected that coming general election is a kind of light under the tunnel. But money matters. People who invest in mutual fund are well aware about economy and will shy away to put their money in MF. They will redeem more than new investment. I believe that income of LIC has also significantly dropped in its core business over past few years and whatever cash they have probably forced to deploy that in some non-performing assets. The market theoretically should run at below 6200 level. The advantage of decreased crude prices has felt nowhere but if dollar goes higher then the definite will be multiplied. I Export oriented It sectors are overbought in true sense and they have marginal influence to hold Nifty. There is darkness. I will write July calls with stop-loss from tomorrow.
Some, Subha Ghosh provided following data.
" - - - - NIFTY 10,856.70 (+13.85, +0.13%)
Future 10,749: - Discount of 7.7 Points: - A bit bearish.
VIX 12.64 (-0.09, -0.71%): - This is bullish, for further up move VIX must be below 12.5 and strong up move, it must be below 12.
Future: - Long Build Up with OI Up by 4.22 %
From 2:15 PM to 3:15 PM: - It was either SHORT Buildup or Long Unwinding: - Levels (Future 10873 to 10834.1)
Last 15 min was short covering: - Levels (10840-10851)
Traders have initiated SHORT of the index, which is bearish.
NIfty crosses above 10880 and made a high of 10893.05, which was followed by SHORTS & Long Unwinding: - 10900 levels will act as resistance.
Option: -MAX OI PE @ 10700 followed by 10600 and MAX CE @ 11,000 followed by 10900.
Huge PE writing is seen at 10800 with 8.46 L contracts added.
CE writing is seen at 11,000 with 4.09 L contracts added.
As per option data, NIFTY is to trade in the range of 10800 to 11000.
Analysis on Hourly Chart: - Analysis valid for next 2 to 3 days of time.
Overlay: -
EMA (3) C: - 10862.91 -> Short term bearish.
EMA (5) C: - 10864.25 -> Short term bearish.
EMA (50) C: - 10779.50 -> Bullish
EMA (100) C: - 10728.75 ->Bullish
EMA (200) C: - 10675.02 ->Bullish
ICHIMOKU (fw26) -> 10722 - 10832 -> Bullish
9d Conversion -> 10862.88
26d Base -> 10801.15
26 Chikou Span -> 10807.60
Very short term (couple of hours session) NIFTY has turned bearish, but still NIFTY is in uptrend.
Oscillators: -
RSI (14)->58.88, +ve but weak.
MACD (26,12)->30.47, MACD Exp (9)- Signal Line->32.74, Divergence ->-2.27: - Bearish
MACD (3,5,13): - Negative crossover, which is bearish.
Interference from MACD is shows bearishness.
ADX (14)->26.57: - Shows upside momentum.
CCI (20)-> 50.80: - This is positive, I will only worry if it goes above 200.
Super Trend: - 10807.60 - - - - - - - "