The brief upmove seems to have stopped and downturn started. That's what I wrote yesterday. Today Nifty, with great difficulty, closed above 11000. Reasons for today's fall, in my opinion, were same that I wrote yesterday- No substantially good news from government and Rupee fall. Today Rupee closed at 71.70 (27 paise higher). It is not good for major industries which are import intensive. Only industries thriving are IT and like which have heavy export income. Let's check other data.
1) FII & DII data- Provisional figures show that both FIIs and DIIs were net Buyers by 373 and 296 Crs respectively. But then why did market slide? Let us find out what final NSDL data shows. The final data says that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 299 Crs, in index futures by 72 Crs and stock futures by 327 Crs. In only debt market FIIs bought Net shares worth 1530 Crs. So we can see that FIIs sold but as small figures suggest, price movement range is also not much. Conclusion- FIIs are still looking to sell,only, now they do not seem to have stocks worthy of selling but they seem to be in no mood for all out buying.
2) Option chain data - On PUT side there is unwinding on all strikes on and above 11050. On lower strikes also there is not impressive Put writing. The total highest OI (17.40 lakhs) is on 11000 strike and fresh highest Put writing (4.44 lakhs)is on 10950 strike. 2nd highest total OI (15.88 lakhs) and fresh Put writing (1.94 lakhs) are at strike 10900. with Nifty spot at 11017, I would treat 10900 at much credible support. On CALL side, total highest OI (18.70 lakhs) is at 11100 strike and fresh highest Call writing (6.37 lakhs) is at 11000 strike which has 4th highest total OI (11.88 lakhs). 2nd highest and 3rd highest total OI are at 11200 and 11300 respectively. So 11100 is credible resistance, according to this OC data.
3) On charts, Nifty made a proper red candle ( not base like) which has lower high and lower low compared to yesterday's candle. If you look at formation over last 4 sessions carefully you will see Bulls trying to rise from low of 10924 to high of 11146.9 but couldn't sustain and fell lower than openning price yesterday, tried again today to rise up but again fell even lower to 11017, down by almost 37 points. If this doesn't show weakness, what does? So I again prefer taking short- side trades. The safe trading levels are essentially the same as yesterday , marked on chart.
All the best. Happy trading.
1) FII & DII data- Provisional figures show that both FIIs and DIIs were net Buyers by 373 and 296 Crs respectively. But then why did market slide? Let us find out what final NSDL data shows. The final data says that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 299 Crs, in index futures by 72 Crs and stock futures by 327 Crs. In only debt market FIIs bought Net shares worth 1530 Crs. So we can see that FIIs sold but as small figures suggest, price movement range is also not much. Conclusion- FIIs are still looking to sell,only, now they do not seem to have stocks worthy of selling but they seem to be in no mood for all out buying.
2) Option chain data - On PUT side there is unwinding on all strikes on and above 11050. On lower strikes also there is not impressive Put writing. The total highest OI (17.40 lakhs) is on 11000 strike and fresh highest Put writing (4.44 lakhs)is on 10950 strike. 2nd highest total OI (15.88 lakhs) and fresh Put writing (1.94 lakhs) are at strike 10900. with Nifty spot at 11017, I would treat 10900 at much credible support. On CALL side, total highest OI (18.70 lakhs) is at 11100 strike and fresh highest Call writing (6.37 lakhs) is at 11000 strike which has 4th highest total OI (11.88 lakhs). 2nd highest and 3rd highest total OI are at 11200 and 11300 respectively. So 11100 is credible resistance, according to this OC data.
3) On charts, Nifty made a proper red candle ( not base like) which has lower high and lower low compared to yesterday's candle. If you look at formation over last 4 sessions carefully you will see Bulls trying to rise from low of 10924 to high of 11146.9 but couldn't sustain and fell lower than openning price yesterday, tried again today to rise up but again fell even lower to 11017, down by almost 37 points. If this doesn't show weakness, what does? So I again prefer taking short- side trades. The safe trading levels are essentially the same as yesterday , marked on chart.
All the best. Happy trading.