# NIFTY # DATA ANALYSIS # 15 YEARS HISTORICAL MONTHLY CANDLE
Purpose of this study is to capture broader view on NIFTY and its Future movement based on last 15 years historical data (Nifty Spot). This document is for Educational and analysis purpose and not for trade and investment. Following consideration has been taken for the study. Refer chart along with this document for better understanding.
• “Monthly candle”, “Fib retracement”, “Fib Extension”, “Candle basic pattern”, “Ascending Channel” and “Phase analysis”.
Main wave (BULL market) -
May 2003 to December 2007. Nifty move from 930 to 6185 and took approximately 1675 days to establish main visible Wave in the NIFTY historical chart.
Retracement-
1) If we look at RSI on October 2007, it was 85.4 and NIFTY high was 5946. In the month of December 2007 RSI was 83.8 whereas nifty was its all-time high 6185. During this period RSI was trending down and NIFTY was to its High. RSI “Bearish divergence” indicates probable change of direction (Lower panel in the chart, Yellow Line)
2) December 2007 and January 2008 monthly closing candle generate “Bearish- Engulfing” pattern confirmed directional change.
3) Downtrend starts and NIFTY settled down to its 76.4% Fib-retracement level to 2252. Down trend continues for approximately 365 days and Nifty Bottom-out on October 2008. World was encountering “Recession” during this period.
Next phase NIFTY started moving upward and November 2010 it tried to break out its previous high and move to 6338, but failed to clear previous high. Finally March 2014 NIFTY breaks out comfortably its old High and makes new high 6730. Our second phase analysis starts from here. Nifty consolidation phase 1590 days.
Next wave (BULL Market)-
September 2013 to February 2015. Nifty move from 5118 to 9119 and took approximately 518 days. This time NIFTY touches to its 50% “FIB-Extension” level of Main wave.
Retracement-
1) If we look at RSI on November 2014, it was 80.8 and NIFTY high was 8617. In the month of February 2015 RSI was 77.8 whereas nifty was its all-time high 8941. During this period RSI was trending down and price was reached to its High. RSI “Bearish divergence” indicates probable change of direction. (Lower panel in the chart, Yellow Line)
2) February 2015 and March 2015, monthly closing candle generate “Bearish- Engulfing” pattern confirmed directional change.
3) Nifty touches “Ascending Channel- TOP” and down again confirm “Down -ward” movement.
4) Downtrend starts and NIFTY settled down to its 50% Fib-retracement level to 6825. Down trend continues for approximately 336 days and Nifty Bottom-out on February 2016.
Next phase NIFTY started moving upward and March 2017 it breaks 50% Extension level.
Our third phase analysis starts from here.
Next wave (BULL Market)-
January 2017 to August 2018. Nifty move from 7893 to 11760 and took approximately 575 days. This time NIFTY touches to its 100% “FIB-Extension” level of Main wave.
NOW WHAT???
1) If we look at RSI on January 2018, it was 75.46 and NIFTY high was 11171. In the month of August 2018 RSI was 72.39 whereas NIFTY was its all-time high 11760. During this period RSI was trending down and price was reached to its High. RSI “Bearish divergence” indicates probable change in direction.
2) August 2018 and September 2018, monthly closing candle generate “Bearish- Engulfing” pattern confirmed directional change (Shall confirm only after this month )
3) Nifty tries to break “Ascending Channel- TOP” but failed and down, confirming “Down -ward” movement.
Possibilities:-
Above mentioned all criteria are matching with previous study.
First time Nifty retraced just below 76.4%
Second time it follows 50% retracement.
We expect NIFTY to settle down between its 23.6% (10850) to 38.2% (10300) Retracement and expected duration is 240-300 days.
This level will also test mid-line of “Ascending Channel”, (Pink Line in the chart).
Please remember, overall market is moving inside “Ascending Channel”, hence we are BULLISH in the market and expecting to reach to its 127% extension 13105 in coming future.
Strategy:-
Buy Quality stock (Periodically/SIP) and hold.
SIP in quality Equity MF.
Analyse and Identify Stocks for Short Sell- for intra-day trade.
Avoid extreme leverage for blindfold trading.
Keep cash in hand for better opportunity.
Take your own decision.
Dear Traders, I am a working professional in a NIFTY 50 company and working as a middle level manager. Technical analysis and Trading is my passion. I am trying to find time for regular trading and analysis. Your valuable suggestion and comments will motivate and help me to improve. If you find this document is valuable and adding value in your trading system kindly don’t forget to like and follow me. I am developing RM-Combination system which probably will help retail traders to trade with more confidence.
• “Monthly candle”, “Fib retracement”, “Fib Extension”, “Candle basic pattern”, “Ascending Channel” and “Phase analysis”.
Main wave (BULL market) -
May 2003 to December 2007. Nifty move from 930 to 6185 and took approximately 1675 days to establish main visible Wave in the NIFTY historical chart.
Retracement-
1) If we look at RSI on October 2007, it was 85.4 and NIFTY high was 5946. In the month of December 2007 RSI was 83.8 whereas nifty was its all-time high 6185. During this period RSI was trending down and NIFTY was to its High. RSI “Bearish divergence” indicates probable change of direction (Lower panel in the chart, Yellow Line)
2) December 2007 and January 2008 monthly closing candle generate “Bearish- Engulfing” pattern confirmed directional change.
3) Downtrend starts and NIFTY settled down to its 76.4% Fib-retracement level to 2252. Down trend continues for approximately 365 days and Nifty Bottom-out on October 2008. World was encountering “Recession” during this period.
Next phase NIFTY started moving upward and November 2010 it tried to break out its previous high and move to 6338, but failed to clear previous high. Finally March 2014 NIFTY breaks out comfortably its old High and makes new high 6730. Our second phase analysis starts from here. Nifty consolidation phase 1590 days.
Next wave (BULL Market)-
September 2013 to February 2015. Nifty move from 5118 to 9119 and took approximately 518 days. This time NIFTY touches to its 50% “FIB-Extension” level of Main wave.
Retracement-
1) If we look at RSI on November 2014, it was 80.8 and NIFTY high was 8617. In the month of February 2015 RSI was 77.8 whereas nifty was its all-time high 8941. During this period RSI was trending down and price was reached to its High. RSI “Bearish divergence” indicates probable change of direction. (Lower panel in the chart, Yellow Line)
2) February 2015 and March 2015, monthly closing candle generate “Bearish- Engulfing” pattern confirmed directional change.
3) Nifty touches “Ascending Channel- TOP” and down again confirm “Down -ward” movement.
4) Downtrend starts and NIFTY settled down to its 50% Fib-retracement level to 6825. Down trend continues for approximately 336 days and Nifty Bottom-out on February 2016.
Next phase NIFTY started moving upward and March 2017 it breaks 50% Extension level.
Our third phase analysis starts from here.
Next wave (BULL Market)-
January 2017 to August 2018. Nifty move from 7893 to 11760 and took approximately 575 days. This time NIFTY touches to its 100% “FIB-Extension” level of Main wave.
NOW WHAT???
1) If we look at RSI on January 2018, it was 75.46 and NIFTY high was 11171. In the month of August 2018 RSI was 72.39 whereas NIFTY was its all-time high 11760. During this period RSI was trending down and price was reached to its High. RSI “Bearish divergence” indicates probable change in direction.
2) August 2018 and September 2018, monthly closing candle generate “Bearish- Engulfing” pattern confirmed directional change (Shall confirm only after this month )
3) Nifty tries to break “Ascending Channel- TOP” but failed and down, confirming “Down -ward” movement.
Possibilities:-
Above mentioned all criteria are matching with previous study.
First time Nifty retraced just below 76.4%
Second time it follows 50% retracement.
We expect NIFTY to settle down between its 23.6% (10850) to 38.2% (10300) Retracement and expected duration is 240-300 days.
This level will also test mid-line of “Ascending Channel”, (Pink Line in the chart).
Please remember, overall market is moving inside “Ascending Channel”, hence we are BULLISH in the market and expecting to reach to its 127% extension 13105 in coming future.
Strategy:-
Buy Quality stock (Periodically/SIP) and hold.
SIP in quality Equity MF.
Analyse and Identify Stocks for Short Sell- for intra-day trade.
Avoid extreme leverage for blindfold trading.
Keep cash in hand for better opportunity.
Take your own decision.
Dear Traders, I am a working professional in a NIFTY 50 company and working as a middle level manager. Technical analysis and Trading is my passion. I am trying to find time for regular trading and analysis. Your valuable suggestion and comments will motivate and help me to improve. If you find this document is valuable and adding value in your trading system kindly don’t forget to like and follow me. I am developing RM-Combination system which probably will help retail traders to trade with more confidence.
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I am updating this chart by posting new one.......4 Hrs chart.
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Hi friends Hope U all are enjoying. As indicated earlier NIFTY touches all projected levels and turned back. I have posted few more levels recently. Have a look for your reference and trading decision. NIFTY trend is UP. Short term trend is Consolidation-DOWN. Safe and happy trading.
Trade closed: target reached:
Dear Traders, On September 2018 it was predicted that Market will reach 13100 level by Feb 2021. Where as NIFTY touches that level 4 months Before. Please be causes now perhaps market will consolidate at this level and Major trend is UP, but medium term is CONSOLIDATION and short term is DOWN.