22 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - still shows weakness 🐻🐻🐻

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bearish stance with the first target at 19672 and the second but strong target at 19589. Ideally the bears should be able to close the day below 19589 tomorrow and take out the 19310 early next week. One thing to remember is Nifty50 is still not bearish on the daily time frame whereas SPX is.”

I would say we had a flattish day today and a tight range. Nifty showed the tendency to fall but was eclipsed by BankNifty. There were 2 news events that took priority over the technical moves
JP Morgan adding India to emerging market’s bond market (GBI-EM Global Diversified)
Ministry of Finance - saying removal of I-CRR will give ample liquidity for banks
We will discuss both of them below in our BankNifty analysis. But most importantly - when there are news flows - it will always take precedence over the technical analysis. Thats because stock markets are mainly news driven - the element of greed/fear is amplified when news breaks out.
We discussed yesterday that the first target would be 19672, that was hit by 10.00 and things were looking quite promising for the bears. The pullback that started from there went on till 12.50 and would have given some respite for the bulls. However this did not last long and we came back to where it all started.
Nifty closed the day with a loss of 0.34% ~ 68pts on what should have been a strong down day.

Yesterday SPX closed at -1.64% loss and fell below the 2nd support line into a strong bearish territory. Compare that with India’s stock markets - we are still not there on the bearish scene. The major support is at 19310 which is another 1.8% away. Bears can still go into the weekend party seeing 3 red candles on the daily time frame.

For Monday I wish to continue my bearish stance with the first target being 19563 and second 19484. If the momentum fades and we are unable to pick a direction in the opening 2 hours - I wish to change my stance to neutral to a wait and watch mode.


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