Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 11.07.2020

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Price Action Analysis:
Nifty continued to edge higher and is now less than 1% away from its 200-DMA . Nifty advanced for the fourth consecutive week and formed an up bar on a weekly time frame. Price witnessed a gap up opening on Monday and recorded a new high at 10848 and finally closed at 10768. The range of the current week (171) has decreased by almost 50% when compared with the previous week range (408) indicating dead market which moved little and covered less ground per unit time. The close of the current week is in the middle one-third of the range indicating indecision. The weekly price bar with a short body is indeed a bullish bar, but with weak bullishness indicating lack of strength due to reduced commitment from traders.
On a daily time frame price formed a bearish outside bar on Wednesday with higher volume compared to the previous day. With a bearish outside we formed a bearish expectation, but the expectation remains muted with the formation of double inside bar . Price neither breaking the low or the high of the outside bar is the reason behind the muted bearish expectation. The bearish expectation will be confirmed only on when price break and close below the low of the outside bar. The bearish expectation will be invalidated if price doesn’t break the low of the outside bar, instead price surpasses the high of the outside bar.
There is a price bar pattern variation when Nifty Spot and Nifty July futures is compared. Nifty spot formed a double inside bar by the end of the week whereas, Nifty Futures recorded a new high on Thursday and finally closed the week with a down bar with the formation of a swing high. The current weekly volatility decreased to 2.6 compared to previous weekly volatility of 3.6. The probable weekly returns is of 282 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 43 points.

Trade Plan
The key level of the existing trend is at 10194 and the critical level at 9544. The point of control of Nifty Spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 10763.Price staying above the point of control can find minor resistance in the zone of 10806 and major resistance in the zone of 10848. Price surpassing the previous major resistance can further move towards the zone of 10891 and 10933. Price breaking point of control can find minor support in the zone of 10719 and major support in the zone of 10677. Price breaking below the major support can move lower towards the zone of 10677 and 10634.

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Point of Control: 10763


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