My Observations on higher level time frames
1. In my monthly view, I had said " The bounce we see after March 27 bottom is likely to fail". This got underlined when NIFTY fall below the longer term trend line from 2009.
2. The monthly range is contracting. NIFTY is unlikely form a large candle for May.
3. May is likely to end negative.
My Observations on daily time frame
1. NIFTY made a lower top on May 13 - 9584. The lower bottom is not made.
2. There was no momentum on either side, buying or selling.
3. There are false breakouts trapping the buy or sell positions.
4. NIFTY is showing gaps at open. But, the gaps are not getting follow through.
5. NIFTY is at the the support zone where it has two bottom formations - zone of 8900 - 8800
All this means
1. Trend on all time frames is negative. I'll challenge my view when
- Closing above previous high - 9584
- New bottom is made.
2. The current zone of 9130 and 8800 may offer resistance and not expected to breach swiftly with current market except there is a news driven large gap.
My bias for the coming week
1. NIFTY is likely to stay below 9450. 9000 is important psychological level and in the support zone. I wont short NIFTY aggressively till it closes below 8800.
2. I do not expect NIFTY to end below 8500-8600 this month.
3. Intra-day movement can be confusing in this zone. Trading light and exiting quickly is required.
1. In my monthly view, I had said " The bounce we see after March 27 bottom is likely to fail". This got underlined when NIFTY fall below the longer term trend line from 2009.
2. The monthly range is contracting. NIFTY is unlikely form a large candle for May.
3. May is likely to end negative.
My Observations on daily time frame
1. NIFTY made a lower top on May 13 - 9584. The lower bottom is not made.
2. There was no momentum on either side, buying or selling.
3. There are false breakouts trapping the buy or sell positions.
4. NIFTY is showing gaps at open. But, the gaps are not getting follow through.
5. NIFTY is at the the support zone where it has two bottom formations - zone of 8900 - 8800
All this means
1. Trend on all time frames is negative. I'll challenge my view when
- Closing above previous high - 9584
- New bottom is made.
2. The current zone of 9130 and 8800 may offer resistance and not expected to breach swiftly with current market except there is a news driven large gap.
My bias for the coming week
1. NIFTY is likely to stay below 9450. 9000 is important psychological level and in the support zone. I wont short NIFTY aggressively till it closes below 8800.
2. I do not expect NIFTY to end below 8500-8600 this month.
3. Intra-day movement can be confusing in this zone. Trading light and exiting quickly is required.