Levels will be same as given earlier. Go Long only above 15880 Target -1 15940 Target- 2 16000
Go Short only below 15739.40 Target-1 15684.10 Target-2 15628.40
Scenario: 1) If Open with gap up above 15880 then go long but wait for initial 15-20 minutes. Book profit with 50-55 points only. Then wait for a clear sign for for uptrend.
2) If Open with gap up above 15880 and within 15 minutes face resistance at 15920 then don't jump to take any trade. Let it go down till 15840 and break it with powerful candle. Then follow the marked levels on sell side. I recommend to keep on booking 50-60 points profit as tomorrow is expiry day.
3) If open with flat around 15830-15850 then wait for a clear trend and follow the level on either side. If breakdown below 15809 then take first target till trend-line. And if the trend-line breaks down then follow the marked target level.
4) If Open with gap down around 15780-15800 then wait till it breaks down the trend line to go short or wait till it breaks up the 15880. Don't trade in between these level as tomorrow is expiry and market may be sideways in the 1st half. It is not good to loose your option premium in sideways market.
Uptrend seems unlikely because if u look at 1 month history, 15850 is from where, since expiry it would break down nd fill the gap. options OI and stuff, look at the volume. Up to 15900 and breakdown to upto 15650.
These 15850 and 15900 which are working as a big resistance since long time. Generally to break up such resistance, it opens with gap up above such resistance levels and it will generate immediate short covering.
As Index option OI data shows FII are bearish in Index but on the contrary side FII are bullish in Index Futures.
Clients/Retailer are strong bullish in Index Options and Pro's are also Bullish in Index Options but not strong bullish.
There can be a scenario of GAP down to put clients/retailer on backfoot to unwind their position with Gap down. But then there will be reversal to upward as well and we will see the range bound trading. In this option writer can get more profit by premium decay.
There can be a scenario as well that it will open GAP UP and give a bit of upward moment and then it starts downtrend from the top.
As an Intraday Trader we don't have to predict what will happen tomorrow. We have to keep our strategies ready for all the situations, which will happen once the market open.
P.S.: I generally don't carry any buy position in Index till expiry day. I generally took fresh position on expiry day.
alifshish
⋅
thanks. I do that too, but I usually Gamble on expiry. will buy calls and puts.
Hi I believe you mean GAP down between 15684-15739.
These are Fib levels.
So wait till either side of break.
If it break up 15739 then my personal view is to go long till the next upper level of 15800 and then 15840. Further if this trend continue upward then next levels to watch are marked in the chart.
And if it break down 15684 then go short till the next lower support levels 15660 and then 15628 & if the downtrend continue then next target level are marked in chart.
But I believe it might go sideways in these levels and if you are taking option for tomorrow expiry then better not to trade until it gives clear trend.
Since Nifty IT looks strong, Reliance look a bit strong (not much) tomorrow to go up and also SGX Nifty is already trading above 15850 (right now) , so I believe GAP DOWN in range 15684-15739 won't be possible tomorrow. Plus American market are also trading in positive (right now).
Hope I answered your question.
Still any doubt, feel free to comment.
All the best for the trading tomorrow.
alifshish
⋅
I have 6PE for 15 Jul 15800. I have 4 PE 22 Jul 15800.
alifshish
⋅
what about the Gap that it has to fill around 15730. opening gap.