NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -20-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17443.85 / 17622.75 / 17361.85 / 17396.9
H-L = 261 points
VIX 17.49 / +14.84%
FII DII: -1534 Crores
SGX NIFTY at 1940h - 17427 +54 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. A lot depends on how the US markets end.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-down straight to the FIB support level and then the index rallied to cross 17600, however, that was short-lived as just before noon, the sell-off commenced and it never looked back.
The relief rally may have been caused by short-covering from last week’s charts and mainly driven by the index heavyweights.
NIFTY by EOD was down almost 400 points from the ATH level and it now seems to be a thing of the past.
The day low was 17361 so the bounce was more of a technical in nature to end just below 17400.
Wait and watch for now.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
HUL 12
BAJAJ FINSERV 05
ITC 05
NESTLE 02
HCL TECH 02
TOTAL 26
The Draggers
HDFC 28
JSW STEEL 22
TATA STEEL 19
HDFC BANK 19
ICICI BANK 12
TOTAL 100
Lifter - Draggers = -74
POSITIVES
FMCG saved the day and RELIANCE also stood firm although it came down from the day high level but closed above 2380 which is where it is finding huge volatility.
There is hardly any other positive seen today as NIFTY was plagued by the very weak global cues.
NEGATIVES
In a matter of just over 1 session, BANK NIFTY has fallen more than 1000 points from its ATH high of 38112.
This impacted NIFTY in a huge manner and logically, it may have alone contributed 275-300 points fall in NIFTY.
There is no dearth of negatives today so not writing anything here as the list may become far too long.
TRADING RANGE FOR 21-09-21
17300-17350 was the support line and frankly, I did not expect it to be visited so soon. I am not sure what the level on the upside would be as NIFTY may keep taking resistances where the earlier supports were seen and at all-around numbers.
On the downside, 17200-250 may be the last line before the situation becomes ugly.
BANK NIFTY supports now stand at 36600-800-37000 and resistances at earlier supports.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
VIS shot up to 17.49 which is way above the recent levels and the selling pressure is causing this spike in VIX.
Despite severe selling pressure, KOTAK BANK held on to 2000 levels for the day. How it plays out tomorrow would decide what is the extent of strength in it.
Whenever there is a huge down move, it takes time for NSE to update FII / DII numbers. I am not sure why does it happen only in respect of down moves? Buy & Sell are just numbers so are they double-checking what is getting reported in a down move?
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
19-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17443.85 / 17622.75 / 17361.85 / 17396.9
H-L = 261 points
VIX 17.49 / +14.84%
FII DII: -1534 Crores
SGX NIFTY at 1940h - 17427 +54 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. A lot depends on how the US markets end.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-down straight to the FIB support level and then the index rallied to cross 17600, however, that was short-lived as just before noon, the sell-off commenced and it never looked back.
The relief rally may have been caused by short-covering from last week’s charts and mainly driven by the index heavyweights.
NIFTY by EOD was down almost 400 points from the ATH level and it now seems to be a thing of the past.
The day low was 17361 so the bounce was more of a technical in nature to end just below 17400.
Wait and watch for now.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
HUL 12
BAJAJ FINSERV 05
ITC 05
NESTLE 02
HCL TECH 02
TOTAL 26
The Draggers
HDFC 28
JSW STEEL 22
TATA STEEL 19
HDFC BANK 19
ICICI BANK 12
TOTAL 100
Lifter - Draggers = -74
POSITIVES
FMCG saved the day and RELIANCE also stood firm although it came down from the day high level but closed above 2380 which is where it is finding huge volatility.
There is hardly any other positive seen today as NIFTY was plagued by the very weak global cues.
NEGATIVES
In a matter of just over 1 session, BANK NIFTY has fallen more than 1000 points from its ATH high of 38112.
This impacted NIFTY in a huge manner and logically, it may have alone contributed 275-300 points fall in NIFTY.
There is no dearth of negatives today so not writing anything here as the list may become far too long.
TRADING RANGE FOR 21-09-21
17300-17350 was the support line and frankly, I did not expect it to be visited so soon. I am not sure what the level on the upside would be as NIFTY may keep taking resistances where the earlier supports were seen and at all-around numbers.
On the downside, 17200-250 may be the last line before the situation becomes ugly.
BANK NIFTY supports now stand at 36600-800-37000 and resistances at earlier supports.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
VIS shot up to 17.49 which is way above the recent levels and the selling pressure is causing this spike in VIX.
Despite severe selling pressure, KOTAK BANK held on to 2000 levels for the day. How it plays out tomorrow would decide what is the extent of strength in it.
Whenever there is a huge down move, it takes time for NSE to update FII / DII numbers. I am not sure why does it happen only in respect of down moves? Buy & Sell are just numbers so are they double-checking what is getting reported in a down move?
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
19-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
