NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Review of my yesterday’s comments
Tomorrow is a weekly expiry day. I am not sure if NIFTY pauses here for tomorrow or continues and fills the gap.
Overall, I’ll trade now with bearish bias for the coming week. 10800 is a clear level which needs to be broken decisively for any thought of an up move.
NIFTY recovered smartly and closed above 10800. I did not anticipate this strong closing.

My trades

I did not trade today. I had few expiry trades, but nothing much to show.

My Observations for the day

NIFTY recovered all the loss made in last one hour of yesterday and closed +1.01%
BANK NIFTY did not close above yesterday’s high. But closed +1.43%
VIX dropped 4.5%, now below 25
Advance Decline ratio 33 to 17, favoring the move.
Open interest data showing no big resistance till 11000.
Institutional Investor data is not supportive.

Some big picture thoughts

As I had said in my weekly view, there are all indications that the current regime ( 3 months of up, with large intra day swings) is likely to end. The result season can provide triggers for the same.
From the chart, I don't think it is going to be easy to keep gaining momentum. Also i still believe July is less likely to end on these levels.

My view for tomorrow
Even though the chart looks good, I have a bearish bias for tomorrow and Monday. This is mostly because the whipsaw we saw yesterday. If NIFTY manages to close above the new high by Monday, I’ll be wrong again.
I’ll not short, but mostly observe if it crosses 10850. I’ll short NIFTY below 10730.

Overall, in the zone of 10800-11100, it is better to be careful and observe how NIFTY is behaving.

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