The only possible explanation is that it is the most violent recession we’ve ever seen, and people are too stunned to realize it.
Here is another possibility with "Schiff" pitchfork which shows a bigger downside in the range of 4000-4600
In day's like yesterday, Sudden downfall happens when AMP(Authorized market participants) stays off, but SEBI/Exchanges had to reassure them with necessary measures to fill confidence in them.
But your analysis seems to be seriously interesting, on a longer note(More than year) if a recession is in sight, then no one can stop market reaching your targets.
But as I mentioned, a serious capital wipe-off will have a deep impact on the next gen investors and traders
SEBI is only a regulatory body and has very limited role in controlling market moves. Exchange has circuit breaker triggers (both UC and LC) in place which is nothing but a computer program.
Market movement is driven by the sentiments of the participants. And sentiments are formed by various factors which is beyond the scope of exchange and SEBI.
I never publish my charts with certainty and I am open for all possible moves. Expecting a bear market from here on. Any bullish move from here will be considered as a retracement/pull back and not a reversal. In fact if you see my previous Nifty analysis had clearly mentioned that the bullish trend is on as long as 10637 is intact (with proper reasoning).
Nevertheless I am prepared for Nifty 6300 (even 4500) as well as new all time high (if that happens). Anything is possible. Just going with the tide and what charts say.
In any market the above phenomena is common. But it's the duty of govt to take necessary action.
Your analysis might get correct, but this will erase confidence in Indian markets and indirectly Indian economy.