Nifty though moved in expected lines, corrected much more and reversed with a vertical fall and V-shape recovery last week.
The targets given were based on sub sub sub waves as confirmation for the clear sub wave yet to emerge. As on today the Nifty offers a number of probabilities challenging the analysts saying “catch me if you can.”... A number of probabilities described here before selecting the more probable one.
DATA :
The highest OI in this settlement is at 11000 now. We all know for each buy there is a seller also. Considering the settlement is 8 days away, 11000 strike price options writers expecting the NS should not go above 11000. So naturally 11000-11050 becomes a hurdle.
If NS stays above 11050 there will be huge short coverings and NS can catapult to 11500-600 levels.
TECHINICALLY :
200 SMA in daily at 10845 area and NS getting stuck there for the last 2 days. Crossing this and staying above should be the
first priority to move up. Once the price crosses it the second hurdle comes near the last high at 10942. New short trades will be created in this area and the momentum should be good enough to cross and stay above it. For this in daily the 10 SMA and 20 SMA now below the 200 SMA should cross the 200 SMA and 100 SMA . 100 SMA is placed above 200 SMA which is anyway bullish.
2 heikinashi candles above 5 sma we got in daily and the MACD signal ready to cross over by opening the histogram above 0 line. This cross over is a must to get the momentum and cross the above hurdles.
In the daily chart the ascending channel is drawn and a close below the bottom channel line becomes the SL for all longs and SL above the upper channel line becomes for shorts when each day progresses.
If we consider the waves mentioned for the last few months in this thread (this is not EW theory though the name suggests similarity. so please do not try to compare it with EW) the sudden low made near 10335 gives much clarity as the 10004 to 10942 as sub wave 1 of wave 5, 10942 to 10335 as sub wave 2 of 5 and the 3rd sub wave in progress from 10335 and confirmation will be on crossing the 10942. In such an event, if emerges, we can calculate this 3rd sub wave as minimum 1.38 times of sub wave 1, or 1.5 times of sub wave 1 or 1.62 times of sub wave 1 maximum using the Fibonocchi.
Looking from another angle the Nifty is making HL and HH which is also favouring the bulls.
So in effect the earlier view continues and the disclaimer being this is purely for educational purpose and may or may not be good for trading. If any body wishes to trade please take appropriate advise from your financial advisor before doing so as the writer or this website will not be responsible for any such actions whatsoever.
The targets given were based on sub sub sub waves as confirmation for the clear sub wave yet to emerge. As on today the Nifty offers a number of probabilities challenging the analysts saying “catch me if you can.”... A number of probabilities described here before selecting the more probable one.
DATA :
The highest OI in this settlement is at 11000 now. We all know for each buy there is a seller also. Considering the settlement is 8 days away, 11000 strike price options writers expecting the NS should not go above 11000. So naturally 11000-11050 becomes a hurdle.
If NS stays above 11050 there will be huge short coverings and NS can catapult to 11500-600 levels.
TECHINICALLY :
200 SMA in daily at 10845 area and NS getting stuck there for the last 2 days. Crossing this and staying above should be the
first priority to move up. Once the price crosses it the second hurdle comes near the last high at 10942. New short trades will be created in this area and the momentum should be good enough to cross and stay above it. For this in daily the 10 SMA and 20 SMA now below the 200 SMA should cross the 200 SMA and 100 SMA . 100 SMA is placed above 200 SMA which is anyway bullish.
2 heikinashi candles above 5 sma we got in daily and the MACD signal ready to cross over by opening the histogram above 0 line. This cross over is a must to get the momentum and cross the above hurdles.
In the daily chart the ascending channel is drawn and a close below the bottom channel line becomes the SL for all longs and SL above the upper channel line becomes for shorts when each day progresses.
If we consider the waves mentioned for the last few months in this thread (this is not EW theory though the name suggests similarity. so please do not try to compare it with EW) the sudden low made near 10335 gives much clarity as the 10004 to 10942 as sub wave 1 of wave 5, 10942 to 10335 as sub wave 2 of 5 and the 3rd sub wave in progress from 10335 and confirmation will be on crossing the 10942. In such an event, if emerges, we can calculate this 3rd sub wave as minimum 1.38 times of sub wave 1, or 1.5 times of sub wave 1 or 1.62 times of sub wave 1 maximum using the Fibonocchi.
Looking from another angle the Nifty is making HL and HH which is also favouring the bulls.
So in effect the earlier view continues and the disclaimer being this is purely for educational purpose and may or may not be good for trading. If any body wishes to trade please take appropriate advise from your financial advisor before doing so as the writer or this website will not be responsible for any such actions whatsoever.