In the past 2 months Nifty has given us many shockers. From the major fall on 21 Sept to the Sudden Recovery of 150/ 800 Points in Nifty / Bank Nifty out of nowhere on 10 October.
FII / DII are large investor and have the money and techniques to move the market in the direction they wish to. In started in September when they began to take Short Positions. Since the beginning of September they were shorting heavily. On 19 September they were net 44K+ Short. The downfall on the next 4 days was used to cover these shorts. Nifty / Bank Nifty fell 400/1000 Points to cover these 44K shorts. Remember this figure.
In October, some of us started thinking that the market is done with the correction and started adding longs. However FII/DII has been still shorting since the very first day of October. In the past week, Nifty touched -300 twice and reached 10200. Now one thing which will amaze you is, even at 10200, FII/DII did not squared off their position i.e. they are still carrying their short position. So the first question arise, when will they close their position?
Mind you, In October FII / DII have having double the number of shorts than in September. (80K i.e. a level which can kill the market) Today on 10 October, Nifty rose 150 Points and Bank Nifty rose 800 Points. However no panic was shown by the big players, and they continue to add shorts in big numbers and have increased their shorts by 18K+ (i.e. a whopping 25%+). Now, Since FII/DII are the smartest player, each of their move is calculated and they do not make any move irrationally. Their increased shorts only Indicate a big downfall coming up.
Also, answer my prior question, WHEN WILL THEY CLOSE THEIR SHORTS?
1. Market will rise more, making people believe that the bullish time has arrived and when all the bulls have taken long position. Then market will begin to fell. Market might show a maximum of 10550 ( Resistance) or 10640 (38.2 Fibo Level) 2. The Rose of 10 October, will be used by FII/DII to add more short position and increase the average shorting level.
Since they did not close their short positions at 10200. They will close it at a EVEN LOWER PRICE. October being a result result, a bad result of a big Nifty 50 company might lead to panic and market will start falling like a house of cards.
Also, I should mention 2 thoughts I have in mind :
1. Either this market rise will be used by FII/DII to average their Shorting Level, because market will not fall below 10200. 2. Or They expect even lower Levels and want huge money, and thus want to short at every rise!
These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.
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Market Witnessed the biggest Fall of the month. Hope You Guys took safe positions.
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On 9th October most of the people were short. The rise of 10 October, hit everyone SL.
On, 10th Oct, people took alot of Long positions expecting it be the end of correction. The 11th October downfall wiped their profits again.
The message is to stick to your opinion until something visibly defeats your view. And never switch position from short to long if your SL is hit.
Form an opinion and stick to it.
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Please share in the comment section, any share of which you want a case study.
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PART 2 UPDATED. Observations regarding 11 October 2018
there is nothing to amazed off......fiis also do follow the market trends....nifty pe shot up 28+ for third time since year 2000 and crash was on expected lines......there is no need to predict the market...follow the main trend thatz down use scoendary upside trends to go short thtz what dow theory says....and bad news is 0ne red candle below 9956 market will b officially in bear trend...coz thtz is where downside swing exists on daily chart....one more things if u want ua stoplosses not get hit keep ua stop losses one candle above the swing high.....anywhere below that will get hit......wait fa retracement to go short.......no one should long the bear market till price action suggests to do so thzt complete break of upside swing on weekly charts.....and anyways stock markets r ready to go crash....fiis simply following dow theory.....
prathamaggarwal
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@owaiszrg, Every would be a millionaire if everything was as easy as you said. :)
owaiszrg
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and there is no game being played.....retracements do happen in bear and bull market both...upside is not fake it is retracement.........
owaiszrg
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correction---one should (not*) long the bear trend
k314
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Good analysis! I also shared same view but on mon-tue (8th and 9th). Also told to use the range between 10475-10540 to initiate short position while Nifty was at 10350 on Tue.
prathamaggarwal
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@trex88, Amazing!. I am waiting for today's data. Nifty / BN open Interest have increased by 7.43% / 2.55% till 12 PM. So no possibility of short covering as of now. Looks like a dangerous site. What do you think going forward?
l0kendra
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Good analysis... and it happened... :0
prathamaggarwal
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@l0kendra, Yes. Keep safe positions, soon we will get to invest money.