NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -30-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16775.85 / 16951.5 / 16764.85 / 16931.05
H-L = 187 points
VIX 13.32 / -0.67%
FII DII: +1990 Crores
Likely open: Positive but profit booking may kick in if Global cues do not support.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY surprised most as it ended the day above 16900 and a few points away from the ATH level.
The gap-up opening above the resistances was sustained throughout the day and after some consolidation, it kept inching up.
NIFTY is now clearly in the proverbial “Uncharted Territory” so the action will be stock movement based as well as how well BANK NIFTY manages to hold higher levels.
The daily charts indicate a strong bullish candle.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 30
BAJAJ FINANCE 23
ICICI BANK 20
HDFC BANK 17
AXIS BANK 13
TOTAL 103
The Draggers
INFOSYS 07
TCS 04
NESTLE 04
TECH M 03
EICHER MOTORS 01
TOTAL 19
Lifter - Draggers = +84
The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it pass the ATH level and close also at a new ATH.
POSITIVES
NIFTY crossed 16900 with relative ease.
BANK NIFTY finally emerged out of the resistances and soared which helped NIFTY.
RELIANCE closed at 2275 after almost a 10 month period and as long as it holds 2250, it has the potential to head higher taking NIFTY even higher.
MARUTI and TATA MOTORS finally managed to turn around and possibly the short covering in these two would have fueled NIFTY rise even further.
Leading banks have also turned green and lifted BANK NIFTY.
FIIs and DIIs were both Net Buyers today and FIIs have taken the lead.
NEGATIVES
IT leaders are under pressure as INR has gained. Also, the sector has witnessed a good run so profit booking is likely and obvious at higher levels.
DII buying has reduced so we may witness some selling from them in the coming days.
IT scrips need to get back in the game for the rally to sustain otherwise it would get diluted.
TRADING RANGE FOR 31-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16700-750. The resistances are not known for now except the big one at 17000.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35400-500 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
TATAMOTORS seems to have some issues with 293+ levels as it reached the level in the AM session but failed to hold on and reclaim. MARUTI did well to end the day closer to the day high around 6800.
I picked BAJAJ AUTO 3800 CE at 70.5 when the spot was at 3735. It ended the day at 3720, 15 points lower and the premium “appreciated” by 8 points! I have not seen such a situation before. I am not sure how to interpret it - whether the premium is hiked for the writers to benefit or the implied VIX has gone up. Let us see what happens tomorrow.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
30-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16775.85 / 16951.5 / 16764.85 / 16931.05
H-L = 187 points
VIX 13.32 / -0.67%
FII DII: +1990 Crores
Likely open: Positive but profit booking may kick in if Global cues do not support.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY surprised most as it ended the day above 16900 and a few points away from the ATH level.
The gap-up opening above the resistances was sustained throughout the day and after some consolidation, it kept inching up.
NIFTY is now clearly in the proverbial “Uncharted Territory” so the action will be stock movement based as well as how well BANK NIFTY manages to hold higher levels.
The daily charts indicate a strong bullish candle.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 30
BAJAJ FINANCE 23
ICICI BANK 20
HDFC BANK 17
AXIS BANK 13
TOTAL 103
The Draggers
INFOSYS 07
TCS 04
NESTLE 04
TECH M 03
EICHER MOTORS 01
TOTAL 19
Lifter - Draggers = +84
The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it pass the ATH level and close also at a new ATH.
POSITIVES
NIFTY crossed 16900 with relative ease.
BANK NIFTY finally emerged out of the resistances and soared which helped NIFTY.
RELIANCE closed at 2275 after almost a 10 month period and as long as it holds 2250, it has the potential to head higher taking NIFTY even higher.
MARUTI and TATA MOTORS finally managed to turn around and possibly the short covering in these two would have fueled NIFTY rise even further.
Leading banks have also turned green and lifted BANK NIFTY.
FIIs and DIIs were both Net Buyers today and FIIs have taken the lead.
NEGATIVES
IT leaders are under pressure as INR has gained. Also, the sector has witnessed a good run so profit booking is likely and obvious at higher levels.
DII buying has reduced so we may witness some selling from them in the coming days.
IT scrips need to get back in the game for the rally to sustain otherwise it would get diluted.
TRADING RANGE FOR 31-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16700-750. The resistances are not known for now except the big one at 17000.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35400-500 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
TATAMOTORS seems to have some issues with 293+ levels as it reached the level in the AM session but failed to hold on and reclaim. MARUTI did well to end the day closer to the day high around 6800.
I picked BAJAJ AUTO 3800 CE at 70.5 when the spot was at 3735. It ended the day at 3720, 15 points lower and the premium “appreciated” by 8 points! I have not seen such a situation before. I am not sure how to interpret it - whether the premium is hiked for the writers to benefit or the implied VIX has gone up. Let us see what happens tomorrow.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
30-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
