Nifty moves vs State elections. Sell after event ( aggressive )
1stly Apologies for long post. Would like to share how Nifty moved post the state election results since 2013 end. Own observation is that...the state election results act as turning point and make a move in the opposite direction of the trend.
Covered Nifty broadening pattern in hr time with 2014 day TF example here...a case for breakout.
Moved like a text book pattern from the arrows. The broadening pattern can also be seen as a expanding triangle ( 4th position in EW - triangle before a terminal ) Or a diamond consolidation pattern.
Current scenario : Aggressively 3.1 is ending and any gap ups after the event are likely to be sold off as 3.2. Aggressively sell in the range of 9060 to 9115. Weekly close / sustaining above 9085, will mean sub-dividing 3.1 and likely to take prices 9250 for the month of March. Labels marked in chart. Clean negative divergences in day TF in RSI and MACD. 12th Week of uptrend from the lows of 7893 ( close to Fibonacci number of 13 ).
State election impacts views as below vs. Prevailing trend.
1. Dec 2013 - 5 state elections. Favourable result for BJP. Results declared on a holiday.
Price opened with a gap up and sold off for next 2 weeks after an uptrend.
2. Oct 2014 - 2 state elections. Favourable result for BJP. Results declared on a holiday.
Price opened with a gap up and rallied for next 2 weeks after a downtrend.
3. Feb 2015 - 1 state election. Un-favourable result for BJP. Results declared during market hrs.
Price opened a gap down , made open -low same and and rallied for next 2 weeks after a downtrend.
4. Nov 2015 - 1 state election. Un-favourable result for BJP. Results declared during holiday.
Price opened a gap down , made low in 1st hr and rallied intraday to cover all the gap down losses. Prevailing trend was down. Makes a low after 5 to 10 days and rallies higher.Not a trend changer.
5.May 2016 - 5 state election. Mildly favourable result for BJP. Results declared during market hrs.
Prevailing trend was sideways. Makes a low after 5to 10 days and rallies higher. Not a trend changer.
6. March 2017 - 5 state election. Results will be declared on a holiday. Brace for a gap up OR gap down. Stated my view in current scenario above.
Covered Nifty broadening pattern in hr time with 2014 day TF example here...a case for breakout.
Current scenario : Aggressively 3.1 is ending and any gap ups after the event are likely to be sold off as 3.2. Aggressively sell in the range of 9060 to 9115. Weekly close / sustaining above 9085, will mean sub-dividing 3.1 and likely to take prices 9250 for the month of March. Labels marked in chart. Clean negative divergences in day TF in RSI and MACD. 12th Week of uptrend from the lows of 7893 ( close to Fibonacci number of 13 ).
State election impacts views as below vs. Prevailing trend.
1. Dec 2013 - 5 state elections. Favourable result for BJP. Results declared on a holiday.
Price opened with a gap up and sold off for next 2 weeks after an uptrend.
2. Oct 2014 - 2 state elections. Favourable result for BJP. Results declared on a holiday.
Price opened with a gap up and rallied for next 2 weeks after a downtrend.
3. Feb 2015 - 1 state election. Un-favourable result for BJP. Results declared during market hrs.
Price opened a gap down , made open -low same and and rallied for next 2 weeks after a downtrend.
4. Nov 2015 - 1 state election. Un-favourable result for BJP. Results declared during holiday.
Price opened a gap down , made low in 1st hr and rallied intraday to cover all the gap down losses. Prevailing trend was down. Makes a low after 5 to 10 days and rallies higher.Not a trend changer.
5.May 2016 - 5 state election. Mildly favourable result for BJP. Results declared during market hrs.
Prevailing trend was sideways. Makes a low after 5to 10 days and rallies higher. Not a trend changer.
6. March 2017 - 5 state election. Results will be declared on a holiday. Brace for a gap up OR gap down. Stated my view in current scenario above.
Trade active:
A gap up after the result and below 9123...its a sell on rises mode. Aggressively 3.3.1 is completed and now should embark on a multi week 2nd wave correction.
