NIFTY | My view on the Index

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Gujarat election is of primary importance to the market now. My personal opinion is that, Exit polls will be in favour of the BJP which might push the market up tomorrow and on Monday irrespective of the result, market will fall unless there's a huge, I mean really huge victory for the ruling party. Magnitude of the fall ?? Well, may be to 10K, below which 9700 might hold. This is my humble opinion.

Indian inflation data on a rise. Doesn't warrant rate cut sooner; or will there be any rate cut after all ??
Another US rate hike; dot plot indicates 3 hikes next year and I consider that a bit hawkish (we gotta wait to see what next Fed chair Mr.Powell has in store and no one knows what POTUS has in store including himself). And there's US corporate tax cut which might trigger capital flight from Indian equity to US equity if Trump could implement as he proposes.

Considering all these, bulls might go on for a sabbatical. May be our Premier & Finance Minister together has to summon them back through new policies or budget. Expect a more populist budget if Gujarat election turn out to be negative for the BJP or even if they win with thin margin.

Technically, 10165 is holding for now; below that 10100/10000 is a good support. If index manages to get aid from current demand zone , manages to cut above the falling channel and nullify earlier lower high factor, next stop would be around 10490/500. From there if the mood becomes positive (naturally it should) we might continue to see new life time highs supported by fresh buying as well as short squeezing. However, in the instance of falling below 10000, Nifty will be pulled back towards 9700 which is very very crucial. A break below will technically make the index bearish and invite more bears from torpor. So, it should be a trend changing event.

Anyway, let's not assume anything as now and see what unfolds in coming days.

Happy Trading !!

Dec 18
Comment: 10100 provided a solid support; falling trendline broken. Price action suggests any dips will be bought. Tomorrow is gonna be critical as we now see the final numbers of election result.
Dec 19
Comment: Solid day again. Index should easily cruise past 10490/500 pretty soon.
yes, thanks..yo have put the fundamental things aptly. However you are excluding momentum and technical aspects. If BJP has a good majority, DII's will push it up as they have been buying all the while..the discussion will move to Budget and 2019. That will continue till we see a global correction - till then markets won't fall. However if there is an accident in Guj polls and we can see big sell off.
Akhil008 kmr_amr
@kmr_amr, Looks like the momentum is still aligned with bulls. Technically, daily close is very good. Though I would've preferred a close above 10400. Anyway, let's see how market reacts tomorrow.
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