Nifty fell on closing basis by 134.75 points. That's huge, actually. World markets provided the trigger, falling rupee fuelled the fall and political uncertainty (atleast,in the morning hours) over situation in J&K forced some buyers to wait. They waited and bought later and that's why Nifty receovered from low of 10782.6 to close at 10862.6. End of the day, however, everything as far as markets are concerned was same. So our outlook too should remain same.
1) FII & DII buy/ Sell -Provisional figures show FIIs/FPIs as Net Sellers by2017 Crs and DIIs Net buyers by 1871 Crs. Final figures show that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 2866 Crs, in index futures by1015 Crs and Net Buyers in stock futures by 1112 Crs. Selling in Equity has not stopped and selling in Index futures took indices down. As always, FIIs did some net value buying in stock futures. So FIIs are still focussed on selling on rise or on slightest sign of panic/uncertainty/doubt!
2) Option chain data also shows negligible participation. On PUT side, there is PUT unwinding on strikes above 10850. Highest unwinding(8.81 lakhs) is seen at at 11000 strike. And support data is too confusing or scattered. Highest total OI (12.8 lakhs) is at the strike of 10500; 2nd highest total OI (12.78 lakhs)is at 10800 strike. In between there is absymally low total OI. Highest PUT writing today (4.04 lakhs) happenned at 10400 strike( lower than 10800 or 10500). So buyers or PUT writers are still not able to decide which can be a good support as of now. That's obvious given the current state of market. On call side, Highest total OI (24.87 lakhs) is at 11200 strike. and highest Call writing (10.68 lakhs) is seen at 10900 sytrike. So here also there is no clarity. to add to confusion there is Call unwinding on 11100 and 11050 strikes. So we have outside range of 10400 to 11200! useless and not helping! Lets see charts.
3) On daily charts, Nifty made a lower high and lower low yet again, RSI is at 23.02 (still in oversold area) and MACD histogram is still showing divergence. But then how and why NIfty recovered 80 points from low. Beacuse I see some change in script here. If you go to weekly chart, you see three observations -1) 61.8 % Fibonacci level is at 10812 (2) 100 Week EMA is at 10763 & (3) There is a strong support zone between 10590 &10810. Nifty was touching or traversing these levels. I guess hence HNI buyers started buying . Weekly RSI is at 36.28 and MACD stll shows deep red bars so as per weekly chart, selling is not done yet! So charts are providing some clues. What about tomorrow? Today's high will work as resistance and 100 week EMA level around 10750 might give some support. so this will be tomorrow's range.
Again, selling at high is more risk free than buying at lows, so trade with SL. All the best happy trading.
1) FII & DII buy/ Sell -Provisional figures show FIIs/FPIs as Net Sellers by2017 Crs and DIIs Net buyers by 1871 Crs. Final figures show that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 2866 Crs, in index futures by1015 Crs and Net Buyers in stock futures by 1112 Crs. Selling in Equity has not stopped and selling in Index futures took indices down. As always, FIIs did some net value buying in stock futures. So FIIs are still focussed on selling on rise or on slightest sign of panic/uncertainty/doubt!
2) Option chain data also shows negligible participation. On PUT side, there is PUT unwinding on strikes above 10850. Highest unwinding(8.81 lakhs) is seen at at 11000 strike. And support data is too confusing or scattered. Highest total OI (12.8 lakhs) is at the strike of 10500; 2nd highest total OI (12.78 lakhs)is at 10800 strike. In between there is absymally low total OI. Highest PUT writing today (4.04 lakhs) happenned at 10400 strike( lower than 10800 or 10500). So buyers or PUT writers are still not able to decide which can be a good support as of now. That's obvious given the current state of market. On call side, Highest total OI (24.87 lakhs) is at 11200 strike. and highest Call writing (10.68 lakhs) is seen at 10900 sytrike. So here also there is no clarity. to add to confusion there is Call unwinding on 11100 and 11050 strikes. So we have outside range of 10400 to 11200! useless and not helping! Lets see charts.
3) On daily charts, Nifty made a lower high and lower low yet again, RSI is at 23.02 (still in oversold area) and MACD histogram is still showing divergence. But then how and why NIfty recovered 80 points from low. Beacuse I see some change in script here. If you go to weekly chart, you see three observations -1) 61.8 % Fibonacci level is at 10812 (2) 100 Week EMA is at 10763 & (3) There is a strong support zone between 10590 &10810. Nifty was touching or traversing these levels. I guess hence HNI buyers started buying . Weekly RSI is at 36.28 and MACD stll shows deep red bars so as per weekly chart, selling is not done yet! So charts are providing some clues. What about tomorrow? Today's high will work as resistance and 100 week EMA level around 10750 might give some support. so this will be tomorrow's range.
Again, selling at high is more risk free than buying at lows, so trade with SL. All the best happy trading.
Comment:
At around 11 pm, DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is showing 720 points down (2.72 % down). Expect same bearishness tomorrow as we saw today.