Strategy backtested below for two years from 12/2/2014 to 12/2/2016
Rules:
Only Long tardes when 55 EMA is above 200 EMA Only short trades when 55<200 EMA
Time Frame 1H
Long Entry Preconditions:
Price above 55 EMA Positive Divergence seen on MACD signal line (for High probability Entries) MACD histogram above zero line
Long Entry Trigger:
Price break above Significant peak fractal of previous downwave OR the break above prior peak fractal high.
Exit Strategy or Stop:
Type 1 Exit
Precondition: Negative Divergence seen on MACD signal line; and Trigger: Break below a consolidation level or the prior minor swing low
Type 2 Exit
Hourly close below 55 EMA
Exit type I or type II whichever comes earlier
# If trade exited but price shoots back piercing out of 55 EMA or is already above 55 EMA, a break of previous peak fractal with MACD histogram above zero line triggers entry again. # Exit Strategy discussed above works well in long trades but chops in short trades. Tweaking a little by taking 1:1 or smaller targets instead of the Exit strategy may help in this issue.
#Trades with asterisk mark (*) at the end are short trades.
Winning Trades= 27 Profit= 6237 points
Losing Trades= 8 Loss=474 points
Net points= 5763 Profit with one lot= Rs4,32,225
I have also tested this strategy for current year but I ll update the results later as its very time consuming. It has been observed that the strategy keeps us in a trade as long as trend is strong. The losses made in the strategy are quite manageable due to price action and divergence combination. Maximum loss made in a trade was 133 points and maximum profit was 1199 points.
I ll further test this strategy; and the comments of fellow traders can surely help in fine tuning. I have noticed some fellows make carbon copies of already published ideas :) Its a highly undesirable practice and should be avoided by all means. B'coz readers can differentiate between the original idea and the copied one. Hope I made my point.
Trade safe and stay healthy. Do hit like and comment.
Best Regards Bravetotrade
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Correction: the third trade was losing so it's total 26 winning and 9 losing trades. On profit front it just takes away 18 points, which is not significant.
E =entry Ex=exit S=stopped Started entries r short trades Others long.
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What makes every good strategy the best is that the profit potential should be higher than the risk involved. As you can notice that I never had targets and stops decided before the entries. But the highly sophisticated Exit strategy handles the trades quite well and always manages our rewards to risks potential. So besides the Entry technique, it is the Exit technique which makes the overall strategy a better one.
Another point worth mentioning here is that, the strategy gave only 35 trades in two years of back testing. By no means I had imagined that a strategy can yield huge positive results in such a small number of trades, until I saw the results.
The most difficult part in testing and applying a strategy is to trade it with a single lot. This strategy passed that test too.
I have observed that trading with more than one lot can give extraordinary results because then we can sell some lots at some strong resistance level or an important fib extension level. One or more lots can be kept until the Exit strategy takes me out.
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One point that I forgot to mention is that the positive macd divergence precondition for long trade may be fulfilled near reversal zones only. And that could give high probability trade. The subsequent fractal break trades may not fullfil this precondition, but the entries would still remain valid for those trades provided remaining all conditions are fulfilled.
Profit=1977 points Loss=334 points Net Profit=1643 points =Rs. 123225 per lot
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October Trades : 1) E=9903 Ex=10002 2) E=10068 Ex/S=??
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Trailing stop for this trade: 10212
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E=10068 Ex=10208
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3) E=10278 SL=10240
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TSL=10270
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TSL=10325
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3) E=10278 Ex=10325
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Total trades =3 Winning trades =3
October Profit =99+140+47=286 points
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Backtest 10/2017 to 2/2018: ---------------------------------- 1. 9959/10000=+41 2. 10068/10210= +142 3. 10245/10412= +167 4. 10330/10185- +145* 5. 10344/10307= -37 6. 10375/10355= -20 7. 10211/10096= +115* 8. 10148/10280= +132 9. 10231/10140= -91 10. 10374/10477= +103 11. 10409/10496= -87* 12. 10504/11009= +505 13. 10878/10425= +453* 14. 10456/10350= +106* 15. 10430 Active Trades with star are short trades Total profit points of 5 months= 1674
I backtested by eliminating 200EMA (slight modification).
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Trade 15 closed today at 10460. This March months back testing will be published on May end. I ll try to make a newer post coz there have been some changes in the rules. Hope it ll be helpful.
Great analysis brother...I have one more request if you don't mind can you share your trading journey and also about your monthly/yearly returns...It will be really helpful for newbies like me and also some people can have an estimate of how much they can expect as monthly/yearly returns., thanks...
Bravetotrade
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@Wiingman, thanks bro. I really dun know how my monthly returns would help someone :)
Anyways, if u v just started trading "business", never get overwhelmed with earnings of someone who has been in this field for quite a long time.
I ll only say that: trade small.. Very small.. in cash segment.. May be 10 to 50 shares..Have small profits and small loses.. To learn risk management.. Note down every trade and analyse at end of day where u went wrong.. It ll help u to know your strengths and weakness.. Work on weaknesses.. Do it for 3 months.. If ur improving then increase quantity to 100.. Notice the difference in ur psychology.. if u can't handle the quantity then go back to 50 and learn more or else Carry on for 3 months.. Then slowly and gradually as ur learning.. keep on increasing the quantity.. And u ll surely be having "substantial monthly income" after a few years of hard work.
Refer my previous posts to learn about psychology, strategies and tricks.. Hope it helps.
Wiingman
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@Bravetotrade, Actually I'm trading from past 15 months and overall in 3% loss....i think it's not a big deal to share your returns and also it's not about overwhelming or something like that...and i think many people here on tv love to know about your journey and returns also,,after all you are one of the best analysts on tv.
Bravetotrade
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@Wiingman, ohkay, thanks for the comment again. The journey started from my brothers investment and losses, which got me in to scene to learn more and get back what was lost. But soon I found I was wrong. I can't get back what I lost buy I can earn fresh. So I kept on learning and ultimately tried what I suggested u in the previous comment. And here I am.
Monthly income :) There r days in which I can buy a nice sedan every month..n there r days when there r streaks of losing trades.
Wiingman
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@Bravetotrade, Thanks a alot brother...it really helps me a alot..happy trading.