NIFTY just hit the 1.272 Fib extn of 10208 today. Hence giving a minor bounce. It could give a bounce upto 10500-10540 but it should not be considered as a reversal. Nifty is still expected to be in downtrend or consolidation phase and expecting it to form bottom between 19-24 Oct before a prominent bounce. Lets wait for it to form a bottom before we can calculate to what extent we can expect a bounce. Until then we will only short on rallies and avoid fresh long positions.
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A fall upto 10035-9951 cant be rules out
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Sticking to our strategy and will only short on rallies and avoid fresh long positions.
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As mentioned in the analysis lets wait for 10475-10540 zone before initiating fresh short position.
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Yesterday nifty made a high of 10482+ thereby entering our sell zone of 1075-10540. Book partial profit at current level os 10190+
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Yesterday nifty made a high of 10482+ thereby entering our sell zone of 10475-10540. Book partial profit at current level os 10190+
Expecting Nifty to stop at 10035-9951 next
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Nifty closed above 5 day EMA for the first time after 18 trading sessions (28 calendar days). A possibility of a deeper pullback towards 10800-11000 above 10560 cant be ruled out.
Until 10560 is taken down on closing basis we will still be holding bearish bias/position.
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10560 is taken down on closing basis and w can expect Nifty to test 200 day SMA currently at 10780 in coming sessions. And as mentioned on Oct 12 we can see 10800-11000 levels once 200 SMA resistance is broken.
Nifty has to make a new all time high to compensate for the damage done (13.79% correction from the peak) in 29 trading sessions and reinstil confidence among long term bulls. A new all time high could attract fresh long positions hence gain strong momentum and the bull rally could be stronger and faster. Until then any upmove shall be considered as a retracement.
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Stay away from long positions. Lets wait and watch until we get a good signal with favorable risk reward.
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Nifty close below 10500 on day chart would be first warning signal. A close below 10400 would trigger a rapid fall towards 10208-10035-9951
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Watch out for the pitchfork median line. a close above o below it could be crucial.
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Nifty made 10208 yesterday as per our analysis.
Conservative traders can close all the short position today and aggressive traders can maintain a save profit above 10300
As per our analysis posted on Oct 8th we expected Nifty to form a bottom between 19-24 Oct before a bounce. We need to wait and watch for further confirmation and not jump the guns. After booking profits in short position we will wait and watch for further price action and decide.
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Cover all the short position and sit on cash both aggressive and conservative traders.
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Nifty made 10035 and now lookign weak. 9951 possible as long as Nifty stays below 10300
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A close above 10170 on day chart would be a first green signal for bulls.
Avoid taking fresh short positions. Lets wait for further price action and then decide. 😊 I am having a bullish bias hence looking for a reversal signal to take fresh long position
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As per our analysis had asked to avoid fresh short position and exit short position completely on Oct 25th at 10120.
Nifty today closed above 10170 and now we have a early sign of reversal. We will wait and watch until we get further confirmation to go long.
Please avoid sell on rise. This may not be a sell on rise rally.
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As per the analysis published on Oct 8th " ...expecting it to form bottom between 19-24 Oct before a prominent bounce" And we saw Nifty make a bottom on 26th Oct 10004+ before a prominent bounce. Not 100% accurate on the dates however.
Also have been consistently telling not to sell on rise since last Oct.