Reliance, ITC, & ICICI Bank to decide Nifty levels for 26-7-21
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -23-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15856.05 / 15899.8 / 15768.4 / 15856.05
Trading Range Low to High: 132 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 66 points
India VIX: 11.76 / -1.09%
FII DII activities: +2,000 Crores
NIFTY 50 EOD 23-07-21 DAILY CHART
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty Open = Close signals an indecisive close and that is understandable considering the fact that RELIANCE results due after market on 23-7 and ICICI BANK on 24-7.
Open = Close has been happening often which is not good as the index then does not make much progress on a closing basis especially when it is a weekly close.
Nifty fell sharply and suddenly in the first hour after a gap-up open and retested the PM low of 22-7.
Though Nifty has made a higher high and a higher low compared to 22-7, the gap leading to 15632 is worrying as all heavyweights have so far fallen after their results.
TOP 3 LOSERS
TATA MOTOR - Finally caved in below 300 with a gap-down open and now 275-285 range may get retested.
GRASIM - Profit booking appears to have kicked in with somewhat higher volume than the fall of 22-7 and RSI has also slipped below 60 on daily charts indicating that the momentum is fading.
LARSEN & TOUBRO - After a good run on the upside over the last few sessions, it has experienced a down day which is understandable. The low of 22-7 is still intact so no cause of concern yet.
TOP 3 GAINERS
ICICI BANK - Rising ahead of its results indicates that the market is expecting it to report a good set of numbers. Any below the expectations reporting may drag it down sharply. Wait & Watch.
ITC - A much-needed candidate on the list! It has shown good traction after retesting its 200 DMA a few days ago and the rise is also with good volumes so we have to see if it can hold on to the momentum next week as well. RSI on daily charts is above 60 so the momentum appears to be on the right side.
WIPRO - One more case of a scrip bouncing back up strongly after retesting 50 DMA a few days ago. One more ATH closes though the volume is not as high as it was earlier.
POSITIVES
ICICI BANK and ITC led from the front and helped the Nifty close above 15850 - both await their results due on 24-7.
Banknifty outperformed Nifty led by ICICI Bank, SBI, and FEDERAL BANK.
FII-DII net buyers +2,000 Crores. DIIs bought in excess of 2,100 Crores is a big positive possibly indicating that their view is bullish for the next week.
Banknifty reclaiming 35,000 levels is a good psycho advantage.
NEGATIVES
The biggest underperformer that has impacted both the indices during the truncated week is HDFC BANK. A fall of more than 90 points in a matter of 4 sessions has rattled the indices.
Even though RELIANCE has closed above 2100, it is below the 50 DMA and on the line of 20 DMA. Nervousness ahead of results is not good as we have experienced in the case of other TCS and INFOSYS in particular.
TRADING RANGE FOR 26-07-21
The support line for Nifty is now moved up to 15700-750 with the resistances at 15950-16000. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential. If the numbers produced by the 3 biggies are below par, the 15600-630 zone may get activated. And in the best-case scenario, 16000 may become a reality soon.
34400-600 is now the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band. For Banknifty a below-par performance could mean 34200-400 visits and the best case could be a retest of 35800-36000 levels.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
It was quite an unusual thing to see Nifty sliding down 100+ points in the first hour itself. Something was at play which again a retailer would not know by looking at the charts.
RELIANCE appears to have declared better than expected results, but its price action on 24-7 is the only way to know how good the numbers were.
HDFC BANK is now like a Kumbh Karna. Not sure when it would get up from the comforts offered by the 200 DMA.
A big move on either side is possible as all big boys’ numbers would get traded at the open so VIX may be high and so would the emotions at play.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
24-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15856.05 / 15899.8 / 15768.4 / 15856.05
Trading Range Low to High: 132 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 66 points
India VIX: 11.76 / -1.09%
FII DII activities: +2,000 Crores
NIFTY 50 EOD 23-07-21 DAILY CHART
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty Open = Close signals an indecisive close and that is understandable considering the fact that RELIANCE results due after market on 23-7 and ICICI BANK on 24-7.
Open = Close has been happening often which is not good as the index then does not make much progress on a closing basis especially when it is a weekly close.
Nifty fell sharply and suddenly in the first hour after a gap-up open and retested the PM low of 22-7.
Though Nifty has made a higher high and a higher low compared to 22-7, the gap leading to 15632 is worrying as all heavyweights have so far fallen after their results.
TOP 3 LOSERS
TATA MOTOR - Finally caved in below 300 with a gap-down open and now 275-285 range may get retested.
GRASIM - Profit booking appears to have kicked in with somewhat higher volume than the fall of 22-7 and RSI has also slipped below 60 on daily charts indicating that the momentum is fading.
LARSEN & TOUBRO - After a good run on the upside over the last few sessions, it has experienced a down day which is understandable. The low of 22-7 is still intact so no cause of concern yet.
TOP 3 GAINERS
ICICI BANK - Rising ahead of its results indicates that the market is expecting it to report a good set of numbers. Any below the expectations reporting may drag it down sharply. Wait & Watch.
ITC - A much-needed candidate on the list! It has shown good traction after retesting its 200 DMA a few days ago and the rise is also with good volumes so we have to see if it can hold on to the momentum next week as well. RSI on daily charts is above 60 so the momentum appears to be on the right side.
WIPRO - One more case of a scrip bouncing back up strongly after retesting 50 DMA a few days ago. One more ATH closes though the volume is not as high as it was earlier.
POSITIVES
ICICI BANK and ITC led from the front and helped the Nifty close above 15850 - both await their results due on 24-7.
Banknifty outperformed Nifty led by ICICI Bank, SBI, and FEDERAL BANK.
FII-DII net buyers +2,000 Crores. DIIs bought in excess of 2,100 Crores is a big positive possibly indicating that their view is bullish for the next week.
Banknifty reclaiming 35,000 levels is a good psycho advantage.
NEGATIVES
The biggest underperformer that has impacted both the indices during the truncated week is HDFC BANK. A fall of more than 90 points in a matter of 4 sessions has rattled the indices.
Even though RELIANCE has closed above 2100, it is below the 50 DMA and on the line of 20 DMA. Nervousness ahead of results is not good as we have experienced in the case of other TCS and INFOSYS in particular.
TRADING RANGE FOR 26-07-21
The support line for Nifty is now moved up to 15700-750 with the resistances at 15950-16000. For any future bullishness, a close above 15900 is essential. If the numbers produced by the 3 biggies are below par, the 15600-630 zone may get activated. And in the best-case scenario, 16000 may become a reality soon.
34400-600 is now the support area for Bannifty with 35200-35300 as the resistance band. For Banknifty a below-par performance could mean 34200-400 visits and the best case could be a retest of 35800-36000 levels.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
It was quite an unusual thing to see Nifty sliding down 100+ points in the first hour itself. Something was at play which again a retailer would not know by looking at the charts.
RELIANCE appears to have declared better than expected results, but its price action on 24-7 is the only way to know how good the numbers were.
HDFC BANK is now like a Kumbh Karna. Not sure when it would get up from the comforts offered by the 200 DMA.
A big move on either side is possible as all big boys’ numbers would get traded at the open so VIX may be high and so would the emotions at play.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
24-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
