NS 50 moving as expected and broken 11000 mark and made a low at 10866. What Next ?
Expecting NS to play in between day's low and 11150 for the next 4 days upto settlement with a downward bias. It can go near the low +/- 40 points and make a bottom to move up again. In the normal case this is expected and in a worst scenario NS can go down upto 10500-600 area for that now the chances are limited to only 20%, but not ruled out.
As marked in the chart, only if you apply Heikin Ashi candle, the bear traps and bull traps can be easily identified, if we read it along with the MACD signals and histograms.
As mentioned earlier here several times, better to look for the 2 closes above the 5 SMA for the trend reversal. This can happen by the end of the coming week or the early week after.
In the meantime one of the MACD signal entered inside histogram today leading to the big fall. The second signal is approaching the histogram and if this enters inside the histogram one more fall can be expected at a lesser degree. Once this happens within next 2 days the first signal entered inside histogram will get released and the Nifty gets start stabilising and as soon as the the second signal gets released from Histogram it will start moving up.
The real next upward wave starts when the 2 signals cross over and MACD histogram opens up above 0. This wave can give a number of gap ups leaving no options for the shorts to get out. As on today the expectation is this upward wave can go all the way to 15000-16000 area by Oct-Dec of 2019.
These views are purely for educational purposes and anybody taking trades on the basis of the above doing so entirely on his own risk and it will be better for them to check their own system and/or consult with their Financial advisors.
Sir ,
so to take a positional long position ,do you mean these 3 conditions
1)2 closes above the 5 SMA
2)mac-d signals cross over
3)MACD histogram opens up above 0
murthyonline
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@joel-vg,
This is one of the strategies. This is best with risk reward ratio. For a slightly high risk ok persons 10900 long with appropriate SL as mentioned in post.
joel-vg
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another great educational post from murthy
Yp2303
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Yes looks very realistic view, I also keep bullish view as medium & longterm moving avgs are showing a rising trend
ushufflem
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Great analysis again. Would you have a view on Yes Bank charts after todays carnage? Thanks!
murthyonline
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@ushufflem, WIll be looking for 120 to initiate buy for Yes Bank. Feeling not comfortable with any mid point where it is now.
ushufflem
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@murthyonline, Wow - that's another 50% from here. Good to know.
so to take a positional long position ,do you mean these 3 conditions
1)2 closes above the 5 SMA
2)mac-d signals cross over
3)MACD histogram opens up above 0