ipuneet

Nifty closed below 50 EMA, 2 day prior to Budget.

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
My followers and regular readers, have been reading about 9/34 EMA system for medium term trend estimation.

Nifty was on verge of giving a "Negative Signal", that came today. It was 9th July, when this system has given a SELL last time, which was followed by a correction of over 700 points then.

It is certainly not necessary that the same will be repeated this time too, no indicator works all the time. But it is important to follow some system to pre estimate the direction or trend of equity indices.

Nifty is WEAK on trend liners, closed below 50 EMA today, RSI value is 45 . . . I can go on and on, almost every indicator is confirming weakness.

The future OI, options chain, PCR , IVs all are indicating weakness with oversold markets.

Including me, many cautious traders have missed this fall in anticipation of some pre budget rally, which is fine. Markets operates throughout the year, playing safe is important.

11960-11880 are the immediate targets on the downside, I'll wait for them sitting on the fences. Budget period is difficult to trade, it is wise to enjoy a extended weekend and look the markets only after these are settled after the event.

If one has to trade, delpoying risk defined strategies is a good idea, interested participants can write to me (direct message) for any advise on such strategies for budget day.



Comments

I enjoyed reading your detail analysis of Nifty.
You have covered all the possibilities for the short trade of Nifty.
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