NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 16-11-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 18127.05
H 18132.65
L 1958.80
C 17999.20
EOD --110.25 points / -0.61%
SGX Nifty 16-11-21 @ 1905h = +20 points
FII DII = +17 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a mild gap-up but failed to hold on to it as usual and fell 100+ points and then almost recovered the gains.
This recovery turned out to be short-lived as it could not even retest the day’s high and then there was no looking back and it fell more than 150 points and failed to close above 18000 even after the close price method.
Nifty thus made a lower high and a lower low.
Bank Nifty underperformed Nifty by a wide margin.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 41
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 90
Net = -49
POSITIVES
Maruti and Tata Motors kept a firm grip throughout the session.
Infosys also remained firm.
Though HDFC also ended in red, it remained more or less in check.
NEGATIVES
Bank Nifty family is the main cause of concern apart from the sudden fall in Reliance in the last hour or so.
Bank Nifty is now within striking distance of 38000 on the downside. This is not a good sign. It is now down 3500+ points from the ATH.
TRADING RANGE FOR 17-18 November 2021
Nifty Support 17800-900
Nifty resistance 18000-18050-18100-150
Bank Nifty Support 37800-38000-38200
Bank Nifty Resistance 38500-700-800-39000
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
On FII actions and Nifty movements:
Maruti was the star performer and is the lead contributor. It was up 7%+ and yet its contribution to Nifty is just 14 points! This is where I am not aligned with the weights that NSE assigns to scrips. There should be a better way to assign weights and record contributions.
In my view, contributions should be based on the slab system. I will cover this in another post.
Reliance alone contributed a -47 to Nifty whereas the total contribution of the Top 5 lifters was 41! One more reason for a relook at weights assignment.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
16-11--21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
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In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 18127.05
H 18132.65
L 1958.80
C 17999.20
EOD --110.25 points / -0.61%
SGX Nifty 16-11-21 @ 1905h = +20 points
FII DII = +17 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a mild gap-up but failed to hold on to it as usual and fell 100+ points and then almost recovered the gains.
This recovery turned out to be short-lived as it could not even retest the day’s high and then there was no looking back and it fell more than 150 points and failed to close above 18000 even after the close price method.
Nifty thus made a lower high and a lower low.
Bank Nifty underperformed Nifty by a wide margin.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 41
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 90
Net = -49
POSITIVES
Maruti and Tata Motors kept a firm grip throughout the session.
Infosys also remained firm.
Though HDFC also ended in red, it remained more or less in check.
NEGATIVES
Bank Nifty family is the main cause of concern apart from the sudden fall in Reliance in the last hour or so.
Bank Nifty is now within striking distance of 38000 on the downside. This is not a good sign. It is now down 3500+ points from the ATH.
TRADING RANGE FOR 17-18 November 2021
Nifty Support 17800-900
Nifty resistance 18000-18050-18100-150
Bank Nifty Support 37800-38000-38200
Bank Nifty Resistance 38500-700-800-39000
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
On FII actions and Nifty movements:
Maruti was the star performer and is the lead contributor. It was up 7%+ and yet its contribution to Nifty is just 14 points! This is where I am not aligned with the weights that NSE assigns to scrips. There should be a better way to assign weights and record contributions.
In my view, contributions should be based on the slab system. I will cover this in another post.
Reliance alone contributed a -47 to Nifty whereas the total contribution of the Top 5 lifters was 41! One more reason for a relook at weights assignment.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
16-11--21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
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