As I wrote last time, we are now getting into consolidation phase. Nifty's chart since last 4 days show Lower highs consistently but higher lows too, except for yesterday when low was marginally lower that previous session's low. But Banknifty clocked higher high and almost same low. These are signs of consolidation. Option chain too is giving confusing signals and FII data too shows big difference between provisional and final data. All signal towards one thing -WAITING! In my view, as I will explain when I tackle these sections one by one, everybody is waiting in hope that govt might announce something on weekends for beleaguered auto industry, finance industry, PSU banks, etc. Nifty PSU bank sectoral index jumped yesterday by 1.49 %, highest of all sectoral indices. Why? Hope! On hope that since Bimal Jalan committee's report has been submitted, they might get some monies from RBI. So everybody is hoping and waiting. But it doesn't seem that this weekend will give any good news as was evident from FM's statement on friday when she said that "...discussions are still on between the (finance) ministry and the PMO. When we are ready to reveal anything, we will do so,” Dow yesterday jumped 307 points and that gave some relief as bond yields improved. Ruppee closed ma lower by 12 paise to close at 71.1525. Rupee trading above 71 is very negative signal. So on this background let's investigate what we might see on monday.
1) FII & DII data- Provisional figures show FIIs were Net Sellers by 1339 Crs and DIIs were net buyers by 1058 Crs. But final data reveal completely different picture. FIIs were Net Buyers in Equities by 1652 Crs, in debt market by around 461 Crs, in index futures by around 914 Crs, and in stock futures by 198 Crs. So they made all round Net buying. This again confirms what I said 3-4 days back that it seems FIIs have exhausted their quota of selling and they are now keeping what they intend to keep for good and yes trade to make money.
2) Option chain analysis- On PUT side highest total OI (18 lakhs) and fresh highest Put writing ( 8.44 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. Comparable total OI and put writing is seen on 11000 strike also. So again like yesterday, both give credible supports. On CALL side, total highest OI (13.50 lakhs) and highest fresh Call writing ( 5.49 lakhs) are at 11100 strike, but both these figures are lower as compared to those on Put side. at other strikes we do not see much positions. It again points to same direction that traders are waiting for any news before taking positions. As of now the range seems to be 11100 to 10900.
3) On charts, Nifty closed a bit higher than previous close but clocked a bit lower high and lower low than previous session. It also finished as a Doji candle signifying that buyers and sellers seem to agree 11047 as right price as of now. It may also be inferred that Nifty is unable to rise above 11100 and whatever gain it has accumulated due to increase in last 6 days might be coming to an end. Our markets are not falling because of global concerns but because of our own problems. So solutions too must come from within. If we break 10900, we may go down big time and if we scale above 11182 (high made on 9th August) we may go up big time too. But as for 19th August my range is 10900 to 11146 (high made on 13th August). Buying and Selling areas are shown on chart. trade with SL of around 45 points and gain of around 100 points.
All the best. Happy trading.
1) FII & DII data- Provisional figures show FIIs were Net Sellers by 1339 Crs and DIIs were net buyers by 1058 Crs. But final data reveal completely different picture. FIIs were Net Buyers in Equities by 1652 Crs, in debt market by around 461 Crs, in index futures by around 914 Crs, and in stock futures by 198 Crs. So they made all round Net buying. This again confirms what I said 3-4 days back that it seems FIIs have exhausted their quota of selling and they are now keeping what they intend to keep for good and yes trade to make money.
2) Option chain analysis- On PUT side highest total OI (18 lakhs) and fresh highest Put writing ( 8.44 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. Comparable total OI and put writing is seen on 11000 strike also. So again like yesterday, both give credible supports. On CALL side, total highest OI (13.50 lakhs) and highest fresh Call writing ( 5.49 lakhs) are at 11100 strike, but both these figures are lower as compared to those on Put side. at other strikes we do not see much positions. It again points to same direction that traders are waiting for any news before taking positions. As of now the range seems to be 11100 to 10900.
3) On charts, Nifty closed a bit higher than previous close but clocked a bit lower high and lower low than previous session. It also finished as a Doji candle signifying that buyers and sellers seem to agree 11047 as right price as of now. It may also be inferred that Nifty is unable to rise above 11100 and whatever gain it has accumulated due to increase in last 6 days might be coming to an end. Our markets are not falling because of global concerns but because of our own problems. So solutions too must come from within. If we break 10900, we may go down big time and if we scale above 11182 (high made on 9th August) we may go up big time too. But as for 19th August my range is 10900 to 11146 (high made on 13th August). Buying and Selling areas are shown on chart. trade with SL of around 45 points and gain of around 100 points.
All the best. Happy trading.