- Monthly picture is unchanged. NIFTY is still in long term downtrend. The some much anticipated surprises like stimulus package, lockdown extension and release are no longer market driving items. Corona virus issue is progressing, but not at shocking pace so far.
What I expect from June, is some recovery and attempt to go for the other end of the range that NIFTY has formed. The range is from 8800 to 9800. will keep decreasing and movement will be relatively slower compared to the month of April and May.
Now lets review my last weeks review.
I had said
1. NIFTY is likely to stay below 9450. 9000 is an important psychological level and in the . I wont short NIFTY aggressively till it closes below 8800.
2. I do not expect NIFTY to end below 8500-8600 this month.
3. Intraday movement can be confusing in this zone. Trading light and exiting quickly is required.
So far, Point 1 and 2 turned out to be as expected. Point 3 was more of a caution for aggressive positions.
For this week, I have the following observations
NIFTY took support from previous low 8800 and bounced. This low held for 4 days in a row.
NIFTY did not show strong sentiment on either side.
Weekly candle is with less overlap.
BANK NIFTY touched the previous bottom, which could be an important .
Highest Open Interest at 9000. Then 10000 and then 8500.
For next week, at least till expiry
This is the last week, so price action can be rapid, especially global clues that can support and dictate the movement.
I think we'll see a trending move in BANK NIFTY and NIFTY , which I believe on the side which we see on Tuesday. That means if Tuesday is Positive, then I;ll trade in that direction for the rest of the week.
Overall, 8600 - 9400 may be the range.
So some important points to remember for my daily trade plans
I wont get overly or , but I will switch sides quickly based on Tuesday movement.
I’ll assume 8700 - 9450 as my range levels for the week. But Avoid creating overnight Option selling positions, especially on the side.
I’ll trade with the chart and buy the breakouts and create ATM spreads.