GauravSaini
Education

NIfty big move and range resolution posted on 22 march

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty cmp approx 10150 is undergoing a corrective for past many days ---while the corrective might not end but an impulsive move of about 150 points is building up in index , the likely targets are marked by red horizontal lines, the direction of move is NOT clear presently

the traders should observe hourly charts for trade entry the impulse will likely occur on monday 25 march

2 the big corrective will Only end on move and close above 10550 or below 9975......it might take some more days .....probably 4 weeks including the current one starting from monday 19march.

this is NOT based on elliot wave ,complex corrective simply used for prolonged sideways move


THe support channel we drew earlier on day charts has served well
Just an interesting observation.....not for trading.....assuming that a about 170 point range frmed in nifty....10600 10770......before state election....

If bjp wins
Upside breakout nifty reaches 10900

Downside/breakdown below 10600 nifty trgts approx 10450...

If no clear majority hung assembly.....than range stays -----option writers win...

From my limited experience in markets option writers wins most of the times

Happy trading to all.....
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Nifty cmp eid is 10742.....Nifty trend is up for all practical purpose ,index has gained syrenght above 10550 ....and as long as it holds these levels it will be positive means buy on dips /buy and hold......there is an election event ....and currently what nifty charts are doing is that about 170 point ...move is in making........this type of price action is part of bigger picture....the range for this 170 point move is 10600 ----10770.....a break on either side willlikely (no surety)equal or bigger move---means upside 10900. Downside 10450 if 10600 breaks.......*****Thus there are several different possible trade setups.....you can go long or short on break of key levels WITH suitable stoploss....or you can try to trade the range extremes........trade ....only 1 setup...that you are cimfortable with....stoploss is MUST........do NOT overyrade .....if stoploss is hit ....take a break from trading for couple of days
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NIfty cmp 10570 ----a short trade can be taken with stoploss above 10595 spot
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NIFTY cmp 10546 approaching eod 17 april-----?the nifty boundaries are now set at 10600 -10500 .a break on either side would give a good impulsive move , maybe on 18th april ...small traders should stay away from market/not try to capture this move ........
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NIfty cmp 10528 eod 16 april------The market is near resistance zone

those looking for shorts can short from 10540----10575 stoploss above 10585 pref two hour close ......
the index is near key resistance zone .....so both side trades are possible .....
THose willing to long Best wait for clean breakout ....if impatient /need to trade can initiate longs at any level keeping stoploss below 10485 spot and keeping in mind that bullishness will pick momentum only above 10585 spot ........

NOTE-The developing scenario is best for option writers (range bound near key level) so IF you take trade and are getting decent profit intraday BOOK out rather than holding positions

please DONOT try to trade Both sides.... Do your calculations study the developing charts and than take the trade .....there is NO guarantee that one of the mentioned scenarios will play out ...markets can prove us wrong again and again
IF your stoploss is hit on any trade ---take a break for a couple of days

DO not over trade

ALL prices are spot


IF you donot have a proper stoploss DONOT trade

I may or maynot take the above mentioned trade ..........


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GauravSaini GauravSaini
@GauravSaini, nifty intraday cmp 10521 spot ,high made at 10557 gave a very good short trade as per above comment which were booked near 10510 giving a profit of about 40 points ........
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april 5 eod nifty cmp 10325 -------Those observing nifty and related indices - a impulse in currency -usd/inr looks likely in coming 4 trading days ......usually a move in currency will lead to a volatility in index as well-------the direction of the said move CanNot be decided right now with certainty


other than that nifty continues to remain range ----the range being 10550------9975 ---only a move outside the range will lead to decisive move in index ......time wise we are expecting the corrective (range move) to end in 4 weeks starting from march 19 -----we are thus in the 4th(last) week of our estimate (expectation) for ending the corrective------this is coinciding with the developing move in currency market..... wait and watch
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Nifty cmp eod 10211.8 -----index closed with decent gains today , though it is still in the 9975--10550 range....the developing corrective is in shape of falling channel that can be clearly seen on day charts -and also on weekly charts

technically ---on long term view price as corrected well from high of 11200 ,the oscillators on day an week charts have reached oversold zone, some divergences are also present.this gives strength to the bullish case

Bullish case ---- 1 the falling channel breaks to upside ----nifty reaches approx 10500-10550 , 2) Iff it starts closing above 10550 the index CAN(no guarantee ) open another upward impulse that will test test 10800 -----11200 and 3 )close above life high will open possibilities of 13500---14000(fourteen thousand)
those who do positional buying/investment in stocks can start now or on close above 10550 ......keeping in mind that nifty close below 9975 can turn the tide.

Bearish case ----break below 9975 trgts 9750--9500 -----and than we will see what happens next.for many 9500 will be a crucial level coz it will be about 50% entrancement of the upmove from approx 7800 ---11200 .


these are the bullish and bearish cases which will become active on break of the key levels ****** however the present state of index of sideways mode ----and we have already discussed that thing in opening comments on march 22.......*****sideways mode does not mean that index cannot have decent moves considering that index is at 10000+ levels a 100-150 point move can happen easily anyday.....like on march 26 OR like the downward impulse we traded on march 22.





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Hope nifty traders have benefited from the chart observations, the horizontal red line we drew on march 22 has acted as support , despite intraday volatility the level of 9975 hs been protected as per comments.-it does not happen always that market go as per your study. ....this time it did ----cheers ....happy trading to all
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GauravSaini GauravSaini
@GauravSaini, despite todays upmove we are still in a corrective till be break the range on either side on a closing basis....as per initial comments resolving the range will likely take 4 weeks from week starting march 19 -till that happens trading might not be ezee ,i would be avoiding trade or trade with reduced quantity .....
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