As they say, history always rhymes. Will this time again be a repeat of history, repeating some pattern in #Nifty charts?
Let's study the past. Back in October 2021, when Nifty made a top around 18600, it went into a price and time-wise correction, taking over 35 weeks to form a major bottom in June 2022. This bottom was formed amid extreme negative sentiments due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. During this bottom formation, the market broke down below the major consolidation zone of May 2021 to August 2021 and also closed below the weekly clouds. However, just prior to that, the market took support around cloud lows and rallied swiftly by 8-12% in May 2022. After forming the June 2022 bottom, Nifty went on to make a new high in November 2022, which was around 55 weeks from October 2021.
Now, let's see where we are. Nifty made a recent ATH back in September 2024, and since then, this correction is close to 27 weeks old. The market recently took support exactly at weekly cloud lows and rallied swiftly by 8-10%. As of now, it risks breaking down below the weekly cloud and may test or break below the major consolidation zone of December 2023 to June 2024.
The tariff war is an uncertain event in the history of markets, but markets, as they say, are always forward-looking and smarter than what an individual can think. Most of the time, bottoms are formed with extreme negative sentiments. Will this be a repeat of the past, or will this time be different?
Will Nifty attempt a new high or test the old high after about 55 weeks from September 2024, coinciding with Diwali 2025, giving investors a good time around Diwali? Or will this Diwali be different?
Only time can answer this, but I'm sharing these observations from my limited experience.
This post is not a recommendation for any buy or sell but purely an educational post to observe and learn from history.
Let's study the past. Back in October 2021, when Nifty made a top around 18600, it went into a price and time-wise correction, taking over 35 weeks to form a major bottom in June 2022. This bottom was formed amid extreme negative sentiments due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. During this bottom formation, the market broke down below the major consolidation zone of May 2021 to August 2021 and also closed below the weekly clouds. However, just prior to that, the market took support around cloud lows and rallied swiftly by 8-12% in May 2022. After forming the June 2022 bottom, Nifty went on to make a new high in November 2022, which was around 55 weeks from October 2021.
Now, let's see where we are. Nifty made a recent ATH back in September 2024, and since then, this correction is close to 27 weeks old. The market recently took support exactly at weekly cloud lows and rallied swiftly by 8-10%. As of now, it risks breaking down below the weekly cloud and may test or break below the major consolidation zone of December 2023 to June 2024.
The tariff war is an uncertain event in the history of markets, but markets, as they say, are always forward-looking and smarter than what an individual can think. Most of the time, bottoms are formed with extreme negative sentiments. Will this be a repeat of the past, or will this time be different?
Will Nifty attempt a new high or test the old high after about 55 weeks from September 2024, coinciding with Diwali 2025, giving investors a good time around Diwali? Or will this Diwali be different?
Only time can answer this, but I'm sharing these observations from my limited experience.
This post is not a recommendation for any buy or sell but purely an educational post to observe and learn from history.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.