Date 08.08.08 (2026)
The Behind the Scenes Math (2020 vs. 2026)
Where the probelm lies
Starting Value (2020): $281 Billion
Plus New Capital Injected (2020–2024): +$35 Billion
Pure Market Appreciation (The Bull Run): +$547 Billion
Minus Massive Cash Outflow (2024–2026): -$45 Billion
Ending Net Value (2026): $818 Billion
The MSCI Emerging Markets the Trailing P/E Ratio (Aug 2026) is 17.32X
MSCI India Index is at 24.37x
Just to compare with other asian emerging markets
China 13.96x
Indonesia 11.25x
South Korea 15.37x
Trading at 24x without a high-growth tech engine leaves India vulnerable if its traditional growth engines slow down. Usually, a 24x multiple is reserved for markets experiencing a massive technology-driven productivity revolution.
Case I
Current Nifty Price: 24,570Target P/E (MSCI Emerging Markets): 17.32x
Current P/E (MSCI India): 24.37x
The mathematical fair value of Nifty to trade exactly at the MSCI Emerging Markets P/E ratio would be 17,462
Case II
Another way to look at this is by Nifty EPS
NIfty EPS is at 1175 Inr
Actual realized fair value w.r.t MSCI EM P/E Ratio would be 20,325
Case III
Taking the average of both, a corection of 23.2% is where Nifty will have its Intrinsic value at which FII outflows will get squeezed at 18,869
Regards,
Ankur
The Behind the Scenes Math (2020 vs. 2026)
Where the probelm lies
Starting Value (2020): $281 Billion
Plus New Capital Injected (2020–2024): +$35 Billion
Pure Market Appreciation (The Bull Run): +$547 Billion
Minus Massive Cash Outflow (2024–2026): -$45 Billion
Ending Net Value (2026): $818 Billion
The MSCI Emerging Markets the Trailing P/E Ratio (Aug 2026) is 17.32X
MSCI India Index is at 24.37x
Just to compare with other asian emerging markets
China 13.96x
Indonesia 11.25x
South Korea 15.37x
Trading at 24x without a high-growth tech engine leaves India vulnerable if its traditional growth engines slow down. Usually, a 24x multiple is reserved for markets experiencing a massive technology-driven productivity revolution.
Case I
Current Nifty Price: 24,570Target P/E (MSCI Emerging Markets): 17.32x
Current P/E (MSCI India): 24.37x
The mathematical fair value of Nifty to trade exactly at the MSCI Emerging Markets P/E ratio would be 17,462
Case II
Another way to look at this is by Nifty EPS
NIfty EPS is at 1175 Inr
Actual realized fair value w.r.t MSCI EM P/E Ratio would be 20,325
Case III
Taking the average of both, a corection of 23.2% is where Nifty will have its Intrinsic value at which FII outflows will get squeezed at 18,869
Regards,
Ankur
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.