Nifty 50 Breakout Upcoming

NIFTY index has been languishing in a tight range ever since it made its bottom 4 months ago. In fact, that tight range is forming a flat-high, higher-lows, which is typically a pattern for Ascending Triangle price action. While 24,500 level has stubbornly acted as a resistance in 3 different occasions, the higher lows of 22,277, 23,105 and 23,640 levels are providing systematic support.

Moreover, the volume behavior in an Ascending Triangle is just as important as the price pattern. In the four swings as shown in the chart, with each swing, the volume spread is drying: 5.7M, 4.9M, 3.8M, and 3.7M. That's a favorable spread for the breakout.

The total length of the triangle is 118 bars. Any good and sustainable breakout must occur between 66% - 75% of the total length of he triangle. That implies that we must witness the breakout between 29 July 2026 and 12 August 2026.

When breakout occurs, the breakout volume should be 150–200% of the recent average volume.

Finally, the month of August the mid-term years are favorable to the bulls. Since 1994, the mean return has been +1.68% and the probability of closing the month in green is 60%.

For risk management purpose, any closure below 23,640 nullifies the bullish stance.