As nifty is expected to go below 17300 on March 13 Market opening - NTPC could be a winner
Close to life highs, very strong buying / switching from high beta stocks
IV is very low (14%) and the call sellers could panic when the stock goes above 183 (life high) - this has been tested once already
Keep stop at 172 - which is the logical resistance and expect to see 190 within the month. Buying calls (very cheap) is the right way to trade this
Trade active
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Massive selling in market today but NTPC held relatively well. Only worry is if Nifty goes below 16800 in next few days - then NTPC will also go However if there is a sharp bounce in Nifty - could get a quick exit in NTPC above 185 levels. Continue to hold with hope
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Hopefully bounces with Nifty to the 182 plus levels today. However given that Nifty is still weak - it maybe a temporary reprive
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175 at close with most of the selling in the last 30 minutes. This was a reversal from cap goods to banks and i dont expect this to last this week. That being said, keep stop at 172.
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On weekly basis it still looks very good (right chart). But there maybe pain in the short term given whats happening with Nifty
Hi Rajesh. Ntpc has hit 171 which is the -1 ATR levels. So technically it should pull back from here as the selling should be done. however the stock target for short term was more like 183 and not 190 which I published earlier(I gave the 3 atr level which is rare. it shud have been 2 atr for monthly). if you are long then stay long as the weekly charts are still bullish. however this stock will take a few weeks or couple months to reach 190. I am holding it in cash
RajeshGambani
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Any updates on this further
kunal_finner
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@RajeshGambani, On the weekly chart - NTPC still looks good. I had put in a trade horizon of about 10 days (this expiry) - but i rolled over my calls to next month (luckily i did call spreads so the loss wasnt huge). This is still a good setup and i do expect the high of 182 to get tested soon. However this time, i will be taking off some at 180 and then above 185 (and not wait for it to come all the way back)
Kapil-Mittal
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👍 Thank you for sharing your insights on NTPC and the potential opportunity in the market. Your analysis of the expected movement of nifty and the strong buying in high beta stocks is helpful in understanding the broader context of the trade. It's interesting to note the low IV and the potential for call sellers to panic if the stock surpasses the life high. I appreciate your suggestion to keep a stop at 172 and aim for a target of 190 within the month. Buying calls at the current cheap prices seems like a good strategy to capitalize on this opportunity. Overall, your post is informative and insightful, and I look forward to seeing how this trade plays out.
kunal_finner
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@Kapil-Mittal, Thanks for that. Happy to help. Yes - cheap calls is a better way to go here as the downside will be limited. Risk is that market collapses below 17k. Its always useful to look at the options market to get a sense of what those market makers are thinking of - additional non chart / non indicator data point
AMIT-RAJAN
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Good charts
kunal_finner
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@AMIT-RAJAN, Thanks - happy to share the setup if u want as well